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Ultra 10-Year T-Note Jun '19 (TNM19)

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Ultra 10-Year T-Note Futures Market News and Commentary

10-Year T-Notes Rally as the German 10-year Bund Yield Plunges to a Record Low on Dovish Draghi

Sep 10-year T-notes on Tuesday closed up +6 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield fell -3.8 bp to 2.056%. Sep T-notes on Tuesday rallied to a new contract high and nearest-futures (June 2019) climbed to a new 1-3/4 year high on positive carry-over from a sharp rally in German bunds to an all-time high. The 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-3/4 year low of 2.015% Tuesday after the German 10-year bund yield tumbled to a record low of -0.328% on the outlook for the ECB to expand its monetary stimulus when ECB President Draghi said that "additional stimulus will be required" if the economic outlook doesn't improve and that "lingering" risks are strengthening the case for action. Global government bond yields all moved lower on the dovish comments from ECB President Draghi as the 10-year UK gilt yield dropped to a 2-1/2 year low of 0.787% on Tuesday. Bond and note yields fell further on weaker-than-expected European economic data Tuesday after the German Jun ZEW survey expectations of economic growth fell -19.0 to a 7-month low of -21.1, weaker than expectations of -3.5 to -5.6. T-note prices fell back from their best levels Tuesday after the S&P 500 jumped to a 6-week high when President Trump said he had a "very good" phone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping and that he will hold an "extended meeting" with him at the G-20 meeting next week in Osaka, Japan. Inflation expectations moved higher Tuesday as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate rose +1.8 bp to 1.640%, rebounding higher from Monday's 2-3/4 year low of 1.612%. Expectations have increased for a Fed rate cut as the market is now discounting the odds for a 25 bp rate cut at 21% for the Tues/Wed FOMC meeting (June 18-19) and at 83% for the following FOMC meeting on July 30-31.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Ultra 10-Year Treasury-Note
Contract Size
$100,000
Tick Size
One half of 1/32 of a point ($15.625 per contract) rounded up to the nearest cent per contract; par is on the basis of 100 points
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (Settles 2:00p.m.) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$1,000
Margin/Maintenance
$1,430/1,300
First Notice Date
05/31/19
Expiration Date
06/19/19 (1 day)

Seasonal Chart

Ultra 10-Year T-Note Jun '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Jun Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jun 11, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
448,115 (-41,508)
448,950 (-24,127)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
148,189 (+23,662)
111,169 (+12,065)
Dealers / Intermediary - Long / Short
19,769 (-362)
65,273 (-21,810)
Asset / Manager - Long / Short
287,315 (-38,806)
291,178 (+21,124)
Leveraged Funds - Long / Short
143,875 (+22,035)
90,160 (-5,110)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
53,285 (+844)
21,448 (-4,709)
Get Realtime - Quotes and Charts for Futures Traders. Learn More >>

Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
132-160 +3.25%
on 05/21/19
137-090 -0.34%
on 06/18/19
+3-250 (+2.84%)
since 05/17/19
3-Month
130-115 +4.95%
on 03/19/19
137-090 -0.34%
on 06/18/19
+6-035 (+4.67%)
since 03/18/19

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 96% Buy with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Maximum. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 137-230
1st Resistance Point 137-085
Last Price 136-260s
1st Support Level 136-120
2nd Support Level 135-300

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52-Week High 137-090
Last Price 136-260s
Fibonacci 61.8% 132-085
Fibonacci 50% 130-230
Fibonacci 38.2% 129-050
52-Week Low 124-045

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