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Silver May '17 (SIK17)

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Silver Futures Market News and Commentary

Precious Metals Surge on Fed Rate-Cut Expectations

Aug Comex gold (GCQ19) this morning is up +38.2 (+2.83%) and July silver is up +0.427 (+2.85%). Metals prices are rallying sharply today with Aug gold at a 14-month high and nearest-futures (M19) surging to a 5-1/4 year high. July silver rose to a 2-3/4 month high. Metals surged on the prospects for easier global central bank policies. The dollar index dropped to a 1-1/2 week low today and the 10-year T-note yield plunged to a 2-1/2 year low of 1.972% on the dovish outcome to Wednesday afternoon's FOMC meeting. The FOMC downgraded its assessment of economic activity to "moderate" from "solid" at its May meeting and cut its 2019 core PCE estimate to 1.8% from March's 2.0% and cut its 2020 median Fed funds rate forecast by 50 bp to 2.1% from 2.6% projected in March. The market is now discounting the odds at 100% for a 25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on July 30-31. Metals prices extended their gains on dovish ECB commentary when ECB Vice President Guindos said today that (1) "we expect inflation to continue decelerating in the coming months," (2) risks are "clearly biased downward," and (3) "if there is an additional deterioration of perspectives, the ECB is prepared to act." Another positive for metals prices is increased U.S./Iran tensions that boosted the safe-haven demand for precious metals after Iran said today that it shot down a U.S. spy drone in its airspace. Ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions, along with dovish global central banks, have sparked fund buying of precious metals as long gold positions in ETFs rose to a 4-month high on Wednesday and long silver positions in ETFs rose to a 6-month high on Wednesday.
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