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Sugar #16 Nov '19 (SDX19)

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Sugar #16 Futures Market News and Commentary

Sugar Rallies as China Expands Buying Options for Private Companies

Mar NY world sugar #11 (SBH20) on Monday closed +0.11 (+0.89%), and Dec ICE London white sugar #5 (SWZ19) closed +5.30 (+1.56%). Sugar prices on Monday rallied on some short-covering from last Friday's 1-month low. Sugar also saw support from Monday's news that China's Commerce Ministry is now allowing private firms to apply for low-tariff sugar import quotas allocated to state-owned companies, which may boost Chinese import demand for sugar. China left its 2020 sugar import quota unchanged from 2019 at 1.945 MMT with 70% allocated to state-owned firms. Sugar on Monday was undercut by the -0.4% sell-off in the Brazilian real against the dollar, which encourages export selling by Brazil's sugar producers. Sugar prices on Monday were also undercut by the sharp -2.5% sell-off in crude oil prices, which undercut ethanol prices and encouraged Brazil's producers to boost sugar versus ethanol production. Sugar saw underlying support from last Wednesday's sugarcane crushing data from Brazil's Center-South, the country's biggest sugar-producing region, after Unica reported that 35.1 MMT of total sugarcane was crushed in the second half of Sep, below expectations of 36.2 MMT. Also, Unica reported that total 2019/20 Brazil Center-South sugar output through Sep fell -2.4% y/y to 21.8 MMT. Unica projects that increased ethanol output in Brazil will cut Brazil 2019/20 Center-South sugar production by -5.7% y/y to a 14-year low of 25 MMT. Dec London sugar posted a 7-1/4 month nearest-futures high Oct 4 and Mar NY sugar rose to a 1-3/4 month high Oct 2 on the outlook for smaller future sugar supplies. Green Pool Commodity Specialists Oct 2y raised their 2019/20 global sugar deficit estimate to 5.3 MMT from an Aug estimate of -3.8 MMT. JPMorgan Sep 30 raised its 2019/20 global sugar deficit to -6.4 MMT, more than double a June projection for a -3.0 MMT global sugar deficit. JPMorgan also said sugar "is transitioning into a longer-term deficit phase" and projects that a global 2020/21 global sugar deficit will be a minimum -7.0 MMT. Dry conditions in Thailand, the world's fourth-largest sugar producer, are supportive for sugar prices after Maxar said Oct 1 that two-thirds of Thailand's sugar-growing regions received only 40% of average rain in the past month, which has stunted cane growth.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Sugar #16
Contract Size
112,000 pounds (50 long tonnes)
Tick Size
0.01 cents per pound ($11.20 per contract)
Trading Hours
8:00a.m. - 12:00p.m. (Settles 12:00p.m.) CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$1,120
Margin/Maintenance
$405/369
First Notice Date
10/09/19
Expiration Date
10/08/19 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Sugar #16 Nov '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Nov Contracts
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
25.50 unch
on 10/08/19
25.95 -1.73%
on 10/01/19
-0.25 (-0.97%)
since 09/06/19
3-Month
25.50 unch
on 10/08/19
26.10 -2.30%
on 07/09/19
-0.56 (-2.15%)
since 07/08/19
52-Week
25.50 unch
on 10/08/19
26.70 -4.49%
on 06/04/19
-0.47 (-1.81%)
since 10/08/18

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Mar NY world sugar #11 (SBH20) today is up 0.16 (+1.29%), and Dec ICE London white sugar #5 (SWZ19) is up +6.50 (+1.91%). Sugar prices are seeing support today from short-covering after last Friday's 1-month...

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 88% Sell with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 25.50
1st Resistance Point 25.50
Last Price 25.50s
1st Support Level 25.50
2nd Support Level 25.50

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52-Week High 26.70
Fibonacci 61.8% 26.24
Fibonacci 50% 26.10
Fibonacci 38.2% 25.96
Last Price 25.50s
52-Week Low 25.50

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