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Robusta Coffee 10-T May '18 (RMK18)

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Robusta Coffee 10-T Futures Market News and Commentary

Coffee Market News and Commentary

Mar arabica coffee (KCH19) on Friday closed down -1.85 (-1.78%) and Mar ICE robusta coffee (RMH19) closed down -34 (-2.26%). Coffee prices moved lower for a second day Friday and Mar Robusta coffee sold off to a 2-1/2 year low. Mar arabica coffee posted a 2-1/2 month low Thursday as signs of abundant supplies spurred fund selling of coffee. ICO data on Monday showed that global 2017/18 arabica coffee output rose +1.7% y/y to 101.3 mln bags and 2017/18 robusta coffee production rose +10.0% y/y to 62.3 mln bags. Cecafe reported Tuesday that Brazil Nov green coffee exports jumped +26% y/y to 3.424 mln bags, the highest ever for a November, with Nov arabica coffee exports up +18% y/y to 3.19 mln bags. Robusta coffee supplies are also abundant as data from Vietnam's General Department of Customs on Tuesday showed Vietnam Nov coffee exports rose +32% y/y to 138,138 MT, and Vietnam Jan-Nov coffee exports were up +2.8% y/y at 1.72 MMT. On the positive side, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center on Thursday raised its estimate for an El Nino weather pattern forming by the end of February to 91% from an 80% estimate in November, which may lead to hotter and drier conditions in South America. Also, Somar Meteorologia said rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest coffee-growing region, was 27.7 mm in the past week, or only 43% of the historical average. Current coffee supplies remain ample as ICE-monitored coffee inventories are just below the recent 4-year high of 2.459 mln bags (Nov 19).Big Picture Coffee Market Factors: Bullish factors for coffee include (1) ICO's forecast for a 2017/18 global coffee deficit of -3.5 mln bags, and (2) USDA projections that global 2018/19 coffee consumption will climb +2.9% to a record 163.219 mln bags. Bearish factors include (1) ample supplies as ICO data showed global 2017/18 coffee exports rose +2% y/y to 121.9 mln bags, (2) Conab projections for Brazil's 2018 coffee production to climb +33% y/y to a record 59.9 mln bags as crops are in the higher-yielding half of their biennial cycle, (3) USDA projections for global 2018/19 coffee production to climb +7.1% y/y to a record 171.166 mln bags and for global 2018/19 coffee ending stocks to increase by +11.6% to a 3-year high of 32.812 mln bags, (4) the slump in the Brazilian real to a 3-year low against the dollar in September, which incentivizes Brazil's coffee producers to increase exports, and (5) comments from Jose Sette, Executive Director of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), who said any recovery in global coffee prices in 2018/19 is likely to be limited, as the market enters a "period of oversupply."
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