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Robusta Coffee 10-T May '18 (RMK18)

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Robusta Coffee 10-T Futures Market News and Commentary

Coffee Prices Settle Lower on Ample Supply and Weakness in the Brazilian Real

July arabica coffee (KCN19) on Friday closed down by -2.65 (-2.89%) and July ICE robusta coffee (RMK19) closed down by -34 (-2.55%). Coffee prices fell to 1-week lows Friday as a slump in the Brazilian real to a new 7-1/2 month low against the dollar sparked fund selling in coffee. A weak real encourages export selling by Brazil's coffee producers. Data that signals abundant coffee supplies is another negative for prices. Conab on Thursday forecast Brazil will harvest 50.9 million bags of coffee this year, the biggest volume ever seen for a lower-yielding half of Brazil's two-year cycle coffee crop. Also, Cecafe reported May 10 that Brazil Apr arabica coffee exports jumped +24.3% y/y to 2.52 mln bags. Arabica coffee prices plunged to a 14-1/2 year nearest-futures (K19) low in April and robusta coffee plunged to a 9-year nearest-futures (K19) on May 8 due to huge coffee supplies. On the positive side was Thursday’s data from the Green Coffee Association that showed U.S. Apr green coffee inventories fell -5.8% y/y to 6.345 mln bags. Another positive for coffee prices is concern that heavy rain in Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest coffee-growing region, will delay harvesting and the bean-drying of Brazil's coffee crop. Somar Meteorologia has forecast up to 70 mm (2.8 inches) of rain in Minas Gerais through May 18. Current coffee supplies over the past month have declined as ICE-monitored coffee inventories dropped to a 6-1/2 month low of 2.436 mln bags Thursday, well below the 4-3/4 year high of 2.503 mln bags from Mar 25. Big Picture Coffee Market Factors: Bullish factors for coffee include (1) projections from Conab that Brazil 2019/20 coffee production will fall -18% y/y to 50.5 mln bags as the crop moves into the lower-yielding half of a 2-year cycle, and (2) USDA projections that global 2018/19 coffee consumption will climb +2.9% to a record 163.219 mln bags. Bearish factors include (1) the sell-off in the Brazilian real to a 7-1/2 month low against the dollar, which encourages export selling by Brazil's coffee producers, (2) ample supplies as ICO data showed that global 2018/19 coffee exports Oct-Mar rose +4.1% y/y to 63.15 mln bags, (3) ICO's hike in its forecast for a global 2018/19 coffee surplus to 3.7 mln bags from a prior view of 3.1 mln bags and its projection that a second year of surplus will depress coffee prices over the next few months, and (4) USDA projections for global 2018/19 coffee production to climb +7.1% y/y to a record 171.166 mln bags and for global 2018/19 coffee ending stocks to increase by +11.6% to a 3-year high of 32.812 mln bags.
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