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Robusta Coffee 10-T Sep '19 (RMU19)

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Robusta Coffee 10-T Futures Market News and Commentary

Coffee Prices Are Undercut by Favorable Brazil Harvest Weather

July arabica coffee (KCN19) on Monday closed up by +0.05 (+0.05%), and ICE robusta coffee (RMK19) closed down -8 (-0.59%). Coffee prices settled mixed Monday with July robusta coffee at a 3-week low. The outlook for dry weather in Brazil that may speed up the pace of the country's coffee harvest is a negative for coffee prices. Brazil forecaster Rural Clima last Friday forecast dryness over the next 15 days in Brazil, which will allow farmers to speed up their coffee harvests and dry the beans. Also, Somar Meteorologia has forecast little rain and warmer temperatures in Brazil's coffee-growing areas through the rest of June. In another potentially bearish factor, date late last Friday showed that money managers cut their net short positions in robusta coffee by -1,584 to a 4-month low of 24,262 contracts in the week ended June 11, which reduces the chances for a short squeeze. On the positive side was the USDA's bi-annual report last Friday where the USDA projects global 2019/20 coffee production will fall -3.1% to 169.13 mln bags as Brazil's Arabica trees enter the off-year of the biennial production cycle. The USDA also projects that global 2019/20 coffee consumption will climb +2.5% to a record 167.92 mln bags, which will reduce global 2019/20 coffee ending stocks by -7.7% y/y to 33.545 mln bags. Coffee supplies are abundant after the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on June 3 that global 2018/19 coffee exports during Oct-Apr rose by +4.4% y/y to 74 mln bags. However, the ICO cut its global 2018/19 coffee surplus estimate to 3.4 mln bags from a May estimate of 3.7 mln bags. Current coffee supplies have tightened after ICE-monitored coffee inventories dropped to an 8-1/2 month low of 2.381 mln bags Monday, down from March's 4-3/4 year high of 2.503 mln bags.
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