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Robusta Coffee 10-T Jul '19 (RMN19)

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Robusta Coffee 10-T Futures Market News and Commentary

Coffee Prices Are Mixed as a Weaker Brazilian Real Weighs on Arabica Prices

May arabica coffee (KCK19) this morning is down by -0.55 (+0.44%) and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK19) is up by +2 (+0.15%). Coffee prices are mixed this morning. May arabica coffee is under pressure today due to weakness in the Brazilian real against the dollar. A weaker real encourages exports from Brazil's coffee producers. May arabica coffee slumped to a 14-1/2 year nearest-futures low last Thursday and May robusta coffee matched its 3-year low from April 12 on Tuesday as abundant global supplies keep coffee prices on the defensive. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) on Apr 4 raised its global 2018/19 coffee surplus estimate to 3.1 mln bags from a prior estimate of 2.29 mln bags. Current supplies are robust as ICE-monitored coffee inventories are modestly below the 4-3/4 year high of 2.503 mln bags from Mar 25. Last Friday's weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) data showed that funds boosted their net-short arabica coffee positions by 7,557 to a 6-month high of 81,668 short positions in the week ended April 16, and that funds boosted their ICE robusta net-short positions by +3,786 to a 9-month high of 36,521 contracts. A positive factor for robusta coffee was last Wednesday's data from Vietnam's General Department of Customs showing that Vietnam Jan-Mar coffee exports fell -13.3% y/y to 488,648 MT. Vietnam is the world's largest grower of robusta coffee beans. Last Tuesday's data from the Green Coffee Association showed that U.S. Mar green inventories fell -2.5% m/m and -7.0% y/y to 6.11 mln bags. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest arabica coffee growing region, was 44.2 mm in the past week or 388% of the historical average.
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