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Spring Wheat Mar '18 (MWH18)

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Spring Wheat Futures Market News and Commentary

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures are trading 1 to 3 cents lower across the three markets this morning. They posted 4 to 8 1/4 cent gains in most contracts on Wednesday. Short covering was noted in Chicago, with preliminary open interest dropping 4,275 contracts. There is still significant snow cover in the Dakotas and Minnesota. As it melts, water levels are rising in that area. Where it isn’t melting, the ground is still frozen. It’s going to be a while before spring wheat planting begins. All wheat exports sales for the week of 3/14 are estimated in the range of 200,000-450,000 MT for old crop and 100,000-225,000 MT for new crop. Taiwan is seeking 110,000 MT of US wheat in a tender that expires on Friday. FCStone estimates Brazil imports in 18/19 down 1.3 MMT to 5.7 MMT on larger domestic production. Argentine supplies are also available. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Spring Wheat Basis: 'S'-Now Big Deal

If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Hard Red Spring Wheat
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:30p.m. (Sun-Fri) (Settles 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
MGEX
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$1,560/1,200
First Notice Date
02/28/18
Expiration Date
03/14/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Spring Wheat Mar '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Mar Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 12, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
36,456 (+78)
31,492 (+1,143)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
12,258 (+1,015)
18,392 (+763)
Producers - Long / Short
33,714 (-290)
31,487 (+1,150)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
2,737 (+375)
0 (unch)
Managed Money - Long / Short
6,849 (+734)
15,742 (+1,298)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
5,409 (+281)
2,650 (-535)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
592-4 +5.19%
on 02/26/18
636-0 -2.00%
on 03/14/18
+23-0 (+3.83%)
since 02/14/18
3-Month
592-4 +5.19%
on 02/26/18
636-0 -2.00%
on 03/14/18
+6-2 (+1.01%)
since 12/14/17
52-Week
555-0 +12.30%
on 04/11/17
816-0 -23.62%
on 07/05/17
+55-2 (+9.73%)
since 03/14/17

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Still Damp

Slightly Cooler/Wetter

NOAA & Export Sales Could Steal the Show

NOAA, Export Sales Could Steal the Show

Weekly Export Sales

The USDA will release the weekly export sales at 7:30 am today.

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 40% Buy with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 640-2
1st Resistance Point 631-6
Last Price 623-2s
1st Support Level 619-0
2nd Support Level 614-6

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52-Week High 816-0
Fibonacci 61.8% 716-2
Fibonacci 50% 685-4
Fibonacci 38.2% 654-6
Last Price 623-2s
52-Week Low 555-0

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