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Spring Wheat Mar '18 (MWH18)

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cmdty Insider - Spring Wheat Market Commentary

Thu Oct 18, 5:10PM CDT
Wheat futures closed the Thursday session with most contracts 2 to 6 1/4 cents in the red. Pressure was apparent from spillover in corn and beans, as this morning’s wheat export number was within expectations. A stronger US dollar was also a bearish influence. The weekly Export Sales report from USDA showed wheat sales in the week of 10/11 picking up 40.4% from the week prior at 475,998 MT, down 22.7% from last year. All wheat exports in that week were at 491,030 MT, up 50.93% from last year but down 2.17% wk/wk. Of that total, 120,200 MT went to Mexico, with 104,500 MT to Iraq. Japan’s weekly MOA tender saw purchases of 127,688 MT of US, Australian, and Canadian wheat, with 59,640 MT US origin. The USDA ag attach for Russia projected 2018 wheat production at 68.5 MMT (1.5 MMT below the official USDA number). Exports are seen at 33.4 MMT, 1.6 lower than official USDA numbers.Dec 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.13, down 4 1/2 cents,Dec 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.14 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents,Dec 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.85, down 3 1/4 cents--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Hard Red Spring Wheat
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:30p.m. (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
MGEX
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$1,950/1,500
First Notice Date
02/28/18
Expiration Date
03/14/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Spring Wheat Mar '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Mar Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Oct 9, 2018

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Commercials - Long / Short
34,617 (-891)
29,174 (-173)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
13,920 (+111)
16,938 (-1,168)
Producers - Long / Short
30,726 (-620)
29,114 (-78)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
3,831 (-176)
0 (unch)
Managed Money - Long / Short
7,902 (+4)
11,197 (-618)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
6,018 (+107)
5,741 (-550)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
592-4 +5.19%
on 02/26/18
636-0 -2.00%
on 03/14/18
+23-0 (+3.83%)
since 02/14/18
3-Month
592-4 +5.19%
on 02/26/18
636-0 -2.00%
on 03/14/18
+6-2 (+1.01%)
since 12/14/17
52-Week
555-0 +12.30%
on 04/11/17
816-0 -23.62%
on 07/05/17
+55-2 (+9.73%)
since 03/14/17

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 40% Buy with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 640-2
1st Resistance Point 631-6
Last Price 623-2s
1st Support Level 619-0
2nd Support Level 614-6

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52-Week High 816-0
Fibonacci 61.8% 716-2
Fibonacci 50% 685-4
Fibonacci 38.2% 654-6
Last Price 623-2s
52-Week Low 555-0

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