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Hard Red Wheat Jul '19 (KEN19)

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Hard Red Wheat Futures Market News and Commentary

Wheat Higher on Weather and Exports

Wheat futures are showing 18 cent gains in the front month across all three exchanges, with deferred contracts 10 to 19 cents higher. The Southern Plains continue to see abnormal amount of rain for this time of year, causing some disease concerns in the HRW crop. Export Inspections for wheat during the week of May 16 totaled 757,704 MT. That was a 13.74% drop from the previous week but still more than double the same week last year. YTD shipments are now 2.28% larger yr/yr at 23.58 MMT (866.4 mbu). Trade ideas for spring wheat planting progress are in the 65-70% range, still lagging the 81% average for this date. Canadian planting progress has not been impacted as much. Spec traders in KC wheat futures and options trimmed back last week’s record CFTC net short position by 2,442 contracts, showing a net position of 56,424 as of May 14. Jul 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.83, up 18 cents, Jul 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.38 1/4, up 18 cents, Jul 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.45 3/4, up 18 cents --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Contract Specifications

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KC Hard Red Winter Wheat
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Settles 1:15p.m.) (Sun-Fri) CST
Point Value
First Notice Date
06/28/19 (39 days)
Expiration Date
07/12/19 (53 days)

Seasonal Chart

Hard Red Wheat Jul '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Jul Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of May 14, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
130,887 (+4,008)
110,002 (+6,578)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
82,943 (-3,471)
115,655 (-6,724)
Producers - Long / Short
79,354 (-304)
90,752 (+2,583)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
35,425 (+1,147)
3,142 (+830)
Managed Money - Long / Short
53,379 (-3,498)
110,577 (-6,059)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
29,564 (+27)
5,078 (-665)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
382-0 +14.86%
on 05/13/19
439-6 -0.23%
on 05/20/19
+13-0 (+3.05%)
since 04/18/19
382-0 +14.86%
on 05/13/19
480-0 -8.59%
on 02/22/19
-29-6 (-6.35%)
since 02/20/19
382-0 +14.86%
on 05/13/19
640-0 -31.45%
on 08/07/18
-176-6 (-28.72%)
since 05/18/18

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Highly Accurate Multi Time Frame Technical Analysis.

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 16% Buy with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak.

The market is in highly overbought territory. Beware of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 430-3
1st Resistance Point 425-3
Last Price 438-6
1st Support Level 415-3
2nd Support Level 410-3

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52-Week High 640-0
Fibonacci 61.8% 541-4
Fibonacci 50% 511-0
Fibonacci 38.2% 480-4
Last Price 438-6
52-Week Low 382-0

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