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Coffee May '18 (KCK18)

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Coffee Futures Market News and Commentary

Coffee Market News and Commentary

March arabica coffee (KCH19) on Tuesday closed down -1.45 (-1.41%) and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH19) closed down -1 (-0.07%). Coffee prices fell to 1-1/2 week lows Tuesday after Cecafe reported Brazil Dec green coffee exports surged +27% y/y to 3.36 mln bags, the highest ever for a December. An overabundance of coffee supply continues to weigh on prices as ICE-monitored coffee inventories Monday climbed to a 4-1/2 year high of 2.475 mln bags. Also, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) last Thursday forecast a global 2018/19 coffee surplus of 2.29 mln bags and said a second year of surplus will depress coffee prices over the next few months. Losses in arabica coffee were limited as data from Somar Meteorolgia showed that rainfall in Minas Gerais measured 9.5 mm in the past week, only 13% of the historical average. Also, Brazilian exporter Comexim forecasts that Brazil 2019/20 coffee production will fall -7.7% y/y to 58.2 million bags as the crop is in the lower-yielding half of its biennial cycle. Robusta coffee has support on signs of smaller robusta supplies after Vietnam Customs last Thursday reported that Vietnam Dec robusta coffee exports fell -6.1% y/y to 153,906 MT. On the bearish side, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported last Tuesday that global 2018/19 coffee exports Oct-Nov rose +13% y/y to 20.6 mln bags. The outlook for a record coffee crop in Brazil and a global supply glut is a major bearish factor for coffee prices. Conab, Brazil's national supply agency, recently raised its Brazil 2018/19 coffee production estimate to a record 61.7 mln bags (+37% y/y) from a Sep forecast of 59.9 mln bags.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Coffee C Arabica
Contract Size
37,500 pounds (approximately 250 bags)
Tick Size
0.05 cents per pound ($18.75 per contract)
Trading Hours
3:15a.m. - 12:30p.m. CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$375
Margin/Maintenance
$2,970/2,700
First Notice Date
04/20/18
Expiration Date
05/18/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Coffee May '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior May Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Dec 18, 2018

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
153,091 (+3,297)
113,635 (-3,064)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
47,609 (+362)
95,389 (+8,334)
Producers - Long / Short
98,542 (+2,094)
93,947 (-3,884)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
39,862 (+1,284)
5,001 (+901)
Managed Money - Long / Short
30,677 (+935)
85,766 (+8,251)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
16,932 (-573)
9,623 (+83)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
112.45 +1.33%
on 05/16/18
122.85 -7.24%
on 05/01/18
-0.95 (-0.83%)
since 04/18/18
3-Month
112.45 +1.33%
on 05/16/18
124.20 -8.25%
on 03/02/18
-6.50 (-5.40%)
since 02/16/18
52-Week
112.45 +1.33%
on 05/16/18
152.95 -25.50%
on 08/08/17
-27.20 (-19.27%)
since 05/18/17

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March arabica coffee (KCH19) on Tuesday closed down -1.45 (-1.41%) and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH19) closed down -1 (-0.07%). Coffee prices fell to 1-1/2 week lows Tuesday after Cecafe reported Brazil...

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 96% Sell with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is approaching oversold territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 113.95
1st Resistance Point 113.95
Last Price 113.95s
1st Support Level 113.95
2nd Support Level 113.95

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52-Week High 152.95
Fibonacci 61.8% 137.48
Fibonacci 50% 132.70
Fibonacci 38.2% 127.92
Last Price 113.95s
52-Week Low 112.45

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