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Cocoa Jul '19 (CCN19)

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Cocoa Futures Market News and Commentary

Cocoa Prices Close Lower on Strong Ivory Coast Production Data

July ICE NY cocoa (CCN19) on Monday closed down by -2 (-0.08%) and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN19) closed down -5 (-0.27%). Cocoa prices fell to 1-week lows Monday on data that shows strong Ivory Coast cocoa production. Monday's data from the Ivory Coast government showed that Ivory Coast cocoa farmers sent 2.065 MMT of cocoa to ports during Oct 1-Jun 16, up +16.7% from the same time last year. Another possible negative for cocoa prices was data late-Friday that showed money managers boosted their net-long positions in NY cocoa to an 11-month high of 31,250 contracts in the week ended Jun 11, which increases the threat of long liquidation pressure. Cocoa prices rebounded from their worst levels Monday on heavy rain in Ghana and the Ivory Coast (which together account for about 60% of the world's cocoa output) that may flood roads and hinder deliveries of cocoa beans to ports. Rainfall has been abundant in West Africa recently as satellite imagery from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center showed above-average rainfall in West Africa from June 9-15. Cocoa prices last Wednesday surged to a 1-year high on news that Ivory Coast and Ghana processors and buyers agreed to set a minimum price of $2600/MT for the 2020/21 season. However, industry leaders have yet to work out the details about how the minimum-price plan will work and there is some concern that the high minimum price will result in overproduction. Cocoa prices have support on an outbreak of the swollen shoot virus in Ghana after Ghana's Cocoa Board on May 28 said it may need to cut its Ghana 2018/19 cocoa crop estimate to 800,000 MT from a prior view of 850,000 MT due to the virus that causes abnormally-shaped cocoa pods and lower yields. Cocoa production remains strong in Ghana after data from the Ghana Cocoa Board last Tuesday showed that cocoa purchases from Ghana farmers during the first 33 weeks of the harvest (Oct 5 through May 23) rose +4.0% y/y to 751,185 MT.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Cocoa
Contract Size
10 metric tonnes (22,046 pounds)
Tick Size
$1.00 per metric tonne ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
3:45a.m. - 12:30p.m. (Settles 10:50a.m.) CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$10
Margin/Maintenance
$2,090/1,900
First Notice Date
06/17/19
Expiration Date
07/16/19 (28 days)

Seasonal Chart

Cocoa Jul '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Jul Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jun 11, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
114,985 (-13,272)
159,013 (-3,448)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
76,136 (+6,103)
37,301 (-1,809)
Producers - Long / Short
88,174 (-11,735)
147,012 (-2,517)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
16,355 (-1,042)
1,545 (-436)
Managed Money - Long / Short
62,718 (+8,626)
30,958 (-4,953)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
13,418 (-2,523)
6,343 (+3,144)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
2,307 +8.37%
on 06/04/19
2,583 -3.21%
on 06/12/19
+147 (+6.25%)
since 05/17/19
3-Month
2,128 +17.48%
on 03/21/19
2,583 -3.21%
on 06/12/19
+288 (+13.02%)
since 03/15/19
52-Week
2,043 +22.37%
on 10/01/18
2,584 -3.25%
on 07/16/18
-38 (-1.50%)
since 06/15/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 64% Buy with a Weakest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Good. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 2,551
1st Resistance Point 2,525
Last Price 2,500s
1st Support Level 2,457
2nd Support Level 2,415

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52-Week High 2,584
Last Price 2,500s
Fibonacci 61.8% 2,377
Fibonacci 50% 2,314
Fibonacci 38.2% 2,250
52-Week Low 2,043

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