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Wheat Price Indexes

Fri, Apr 3rd, 2020

wheat Price Indexes by State

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cmdty Wheat Price Index Family

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The cmdty Wheat Price Index family is a series of volume weighted indexes and price assessments that represent fair value pricing for physical Wheat across the United States. The indexes are calculated on a continuous basis and use a sophisticated – but transparent - weighting process to ensure prices are objective and reflective of underlying market economics.

Calculated at the County, Crop Reporting District, State, Regional, and National level – from prices contributed by over 4,000 grain buying locations – there are over 500 different front-month indexes. With forward curves going out twelve months for each index area there are over 6,000 objective prices for Wheat calculated each day. Historical information is available through to the start of 2014.

Major growing zones are divided among the following regions:

  • Eastern – Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin
  • Western – Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, N. Dakota, S. Dakota
  • Delta – Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee

The indexes are powered by best-in-class grain prices from the cmdty by Barchart product line. Additional prices, including basis values and forward curve information, are available exclusively to subscribers of cmdtyView® - the leading platform for commodity trading – or other data products available through cmdty.

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cmdty Wheat Price Indexes

cmdty Insider - Wheat Futures Market News and Commentary

KC wheat, the most exported variety, was the weakest on Thursday, as May futures ended the session 11 cents weaker. May SRW wheat closed 8 1/2 cents lower. MPLS May futures were down by 5 1/2 cents at the close. Wheat export bookings from the week ending March 26 were just 10.34% of bookings from the same week last year and below estimates. MY week 43 wheat sales were only 2.679 mbu. The week’s shipments were also low (3rd lowest on the MY) as only 10.05 mbu were shipped. The accumulated wheat exports are still ahead of last year, the 726.6 mbu is 8.6% above last year’s pace and 72.7% of the March WASDE forecast. The weekly Export Sales report also showed 6.83 mbu of new crop wheat sales. CENSUS data from the month of February showed that wheat exports were 80.25 mbu, which was 17% above Jan but down 3% yr/yr.

May 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.41 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents,

May 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.64, down 11 cents,

May 20 MGEX Wheat closed a... Read more

Corn Basis: Bulls Becoming Extinct

The early part of this week has seen national average corn basis stabilize, a small victory for a market that has crumbled of late. A look at the daily chart for the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average) is enough to dishearten remaining corn market bulls, as the NCBI has fallen from a high of 12 1/4 cents under May futures on March 5 to the final March reading of 29 1/4 cents under as markets came to a close on Tuesday the 31st. Those looking for a silver lining will note the NCBI is unchanged, basically, from the previous Friday’s calculation. On the other hand those, like the Joker from “The Dark Knight” who “just like to watch the world burn”, will point out that even though the NCBI has stabilized this week each daily reading has been fractionally weaker. As I’ve talked about in this space over the last month or so, the biggest hurdle faced by corn basis has been continued domestic demand destruction. The loss of export business is well documented, particularly compared to the previous marketing year’s record pace, but more alarming is what is happening on the ethanol front. Wednesday morning was filled with talk of crude oil having its worst quarter ever, with the spot market reportedly losing 66% from January 1. Meanwhile, the RBOB gasoline to ethanol spread showed the latter moving to an almost 50-cent premium over the former during the latter stages of March. With gasoline demand near non-existent heading into the busy spring-summer driving season, it only looks to be making the situation more bearish for corn. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.
SRW Wheat Basis: A New Trend

What to think about wheat? Yes, I know, that’s a broad question so allow me to winnow it down a bit. More specifically, what to think about soft red winter wheat (SRW) basis? While there continues to be a number of bullish fundamental factors for SRW, the cmdty National SRW Wheat Basis Index (SRBI, weighted national average) has been in freefall of late. A look at the SRBI weekly close-only chart shows national average basis had been in a long term uptrend (series of higher lows and higher highs) dating back to the low of 54 1/2 cents under (nearby futures, week of November 28, 2016) and extending to the high of 5 1/4 cents under (week of January 6, 2020). After posting a double top with a secondary peak of 5 3/4 cents under (week of February 10, 2020), the SRBI fell to a new 4-week low weekly close of 8 1/4 under the week of February 24. This was the technical signal market fundamentals were setting sail on a new intermediate-term downtrend. How weak might basis get, from a technical point of view? Given the new secondary downtrend, the downside target area is between 24 cents under and 35 3/4 cents under. These prices mark the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels of the previous (and previously mentioned) 3-year plus uptrend. Extending the previous trendline, a harvest low for the SRBI could be seen near the 38.2% retracement level of 24 cents under. At that time the SRBI might rally for weeks and/or months, before turning down again to possibly test the 50% retracement level of 30 cents under. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.
Corn Basis: No Demand, No Support

The latest weekly export sales and shipment report was released Thursday (March 26) morning, for data up through Thursday, March 19. Included in this was total export shipments of U.S. corn coming in at 671 mb at a point in the marketing year when a 5-year average of 44% of total export demand has been shipped. Doing the math shows us total export shipment demand for 2019-2020 could come in near 1.52 bb, down 22% from the previous marketing year’s reported shipments of roughly 1.94 bb. Total outstanding (unshipped) sales were sitting at 543 mb, nearly even with the previous marketing year’s 546 mb due to the big sale of 756,000 mt (29.8 mb) announced last Friday, March 20. The slow pace of export shipments continues to highlight the struggles of one of the three legs of demand for domestic corn. It should be noted, though, export demand usually accounts for about 15% of total demand each marketing year, with more emphasis put on feed and ethanol. However, the fact the world is little interested in buying U.S. supplies is certainly playing in the continued weakening of the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average) with this past Wednesday’s calculation coming in at 27 1/4 cents under May futures. Last Friday (March 20) saw the NCBI calculated at 24 1/4 cents under, meaning the NCBI has weakened 3 cents following the announcement of the sizeable sale to China. The trend of the NCBI is now decidedly down as more cash corn from 2019 is sold. However, this flow could slow once U.S. producers are able to get into the fields for planting season. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.

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