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Wheat Price Indexes

Sun, Jan 26th, 2020

wheat Price Indexes by State

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cmdty Wheat Price Index Family

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The cmdty Wheat Price Index family is a series of volume weighted indexes and price assessments that represent fair value pricing for physical Wheat across the United States. The indexes are calculated on a continuous basis and use a sophisticated – but transparent - weighting process to ensure prices are objective and reflective of underlying market economics.

Calculated at the County, Crop Reporting District, State, Regional, and National level – from prices contributed by over 4,000 grain buying locations – there are over 500 different front-month indexes. With forward curves going out twelve months for each index area there are over 6,000 objective prices for Wheat calculated each day. Historical information is available through to the start of 2014.

Major growing zones are divided among the following regions:

  • Eastern – Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin
  • Western – Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, N. Dakota, S. Dakota
  • Delta – Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee

The indexes are powered by best-in-class grain prices from the cmdty by Barchart product line. Additional prices, including basis values and forward curve information, are available exclusively to subscribers of cmdtyView® - the leading platform for commodity trading – or other data products available through cmdty.

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cmdty Wheat Price Indexes

cmdty Insider - Wheat Futures Market News and Commentary


Wheat was lower on Friday, with Minneapolis down the most. Despite a 7 cent giveback in March futures, SRW wheat was still 3 cents higher on the week. KC HRW futures were 6 1/4 lower from Friday’s action, and ended the week 8 3/4 cents lower. The MGE HRS futures fell by 8 ¼ on Friday, which put futures lower by 15 cents wk/wk. In the latest CoT report from the 01/21, Chicago wheat spec traders were 40% more net long. In KC HRW futures, managed money was also more net long as OI in managed money shorts has dropped 7 consecutive weeks. The Spring wheat spec traders extended their longest net short on record, which is now up to 72 consecutive weeks. USDA’s weekly export sales report had wheat bookings for the week ending 01/16 at 741,983 MTs, with 46,000 MT of new crop wheat bookings. The report showed a weekly increase of 14.21% in wheat shipments, with 19.290 mbu shipped. That puts MYTD exports for all wheat at 568.987 mbu, which is 16.49% ahead of last MY’s pace.

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Corn Basis: It Doesn't Add Up

Tracking corn basis has been fascinating and frustrating all at the same time. The ongoing uptrend (strengthening) of the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average) can be traced back to early September 2018 and a weekly close of roughly 95 1/4 cents under the Dec 2018 futures contract. Since then the climb through this week’s calculation (through Thursday afternoon) of 13 1/2 cents under has been nearly unchecked, plowing through numerous rolls from one contract to the next and seemingly shrugging off times of both weak and strong carry in the futures market’s forward curve. However, if we compare it wo what we’ve been told the last couple of marketing years, this extraordinary run in basis doesn’t add up. Recall from recent USDA reports that 2018-2019 marketing year (began in September 2018, along with the bottom in basis) ending stocks were supposedly 2.2 billion bushels (bb), second only to the 2.3 bb reported at the end of the 2016-2017 marketing year. Yet basis never blinked. I’ve put together a study using the marketing year daily average of the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national cash average price), a function of the NCBI (cash = futures +/- basis), that shows correlation to ending stocks-to-use (es/u), the final measure of fundamental bullishness or bearishness. And what my study shows (I talk about it in more detail on my website) is USDA has likely overestimated es/u for the previous two marketing years and now 2019-2020. If we take the degree of overestimation into account, suddenly the message the NCBI is telling us makes much more sense. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.
SRW Wheat S&D: A Numeer of Moving Parts

This week’s USDA weekly export sales and shipment update, usually released Thursday mornings, was delayed a day due to Monday’s USDA holiday. That gives us time to contemplate what the latest numbers, through Thursday, January 16, might hold for U.S. wheat. Consider the old-crop Chicago (SRW) March-May futures spread has moved to an inverse this week, a move that a week ago (the cutoff day for the upcoming release) was still just a strong possibility. And as we know from our study of market spreads, an inverse reflects a strong bullish sentiment for short-term supply and demand. A look at the previous weekly update (through January 9) showed the pace of all U.S. wheat shipments projecting total marketing year demand at 932 mb, up 42 mb from the previous marketing year’s reported all-wheat shipments. However, the continued bullishness of the old-crop Chicago futures spread and the cmdty National SRW Wheat Basis Index (SRBI, weighted national average) still calculated near 6 cents under (March). Recall the Chicago wheat futures market has long been viewed as a proxy for world supply and demand given it is the most heavily traded futures market, so these two bullish fundamental reads (nearby spread and basis) continue to reflect developments in France, the Black Sea Region (Russia and Ukraine), and Australia. It’s interesting to note the SRBI continues to plateau (see my post from Dec. 26) as merchandisers allow the March futures contract to generate cash supplies to meet demand. The threat is a bearish breakdown by the SRBI that would give us a different fundamental read. Stay tuned. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.
Soybean Basis: One More Bearish Nugget

As I talked about on my website Wednesday morning, Tuesday was not a good day for the soybean market. Coming out of a U.S. 3-day holiday weekend, hopes were high that follow-through buying from Friday would be seen. However, Friday’s rally in soybeans wasn’t as impressive as what was seen in the neighboring corn market, if for no other reason than soybeans did not see the commercial buying that drove corn to double digit gains. In fact, futures spreads closed flat to a slightly stronger carry indicating the commercial side of soybeans was actually selling. Additionally, trade volume was down once again indicating the buying that was there wasn’t enthusiastic. Then came Tuesday’s sharp sell-off driven by strong selling from both noncommercial and commercial traders. Regarding the latter, not only did futures spreads show a stronger carry, with the March-to-May closing at 13 3/4 cents and covering roughly 61% of calculated full commercial carry (based on CME’s 8 cents per bushel per month storage rate), but the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index (NSBI, weighted national average) weakened as well. The latter is the more concerning given the normal inverse relationship between basis and futures. Yet, Tuesday’s NSBI was calculated at 55 1/4 cents under March futures as compared to the previous Friday’s calculation of 55 cents under. Granted, this isn’t a huge move but the fact it weakened at all while following the plummet in futures has to be a bit disheartening for market bulls. Particularly with Brazil’s harvest drawing closer every day. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.
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