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S&P 500 E-Mini Dec '18 (ESZ18)

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S&P 500 E-Mini Futures Market News and Commentary

S&P 500 and Dow Climb to Record Highs on Fed Rate-Cut Expectations

The S&P 500 ($SPX) this morning is up by +19.09 (+0.65%), the Dow Jones Industrials index ($DOWI) is up +181.90 (+0.69%), and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) is up by +65.04 (+0.85%). U.S. stock indexes are moving higher this morning with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrials at new record highs and the Nasdaq 100 at a 1-1/2 month high. Stocks have extended Wednesday's gains on the Fed's dovish shift at Wednesday's FOMC meeting where the FOMC downgraded its assessment of economic activity to "moderate" from May's "solid" and removed its reference to being "patient" on interest rates, which bolsters the outlook for a rate cut at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting. In fact, fed fund futures are now discounting the odds at 100% for a 25 bp rate cut at next month's FOMC meeting. The outlook for lower short-term interest rates pushed the 10-year T-note yield down to a 2-1/2 year low today of 1.972%, which is supportive for stock prices. Today's weekly U.S. jobless claims data was also supportive for stock prices after weekly initial unemployment claims fell -6,000 to 216,000, showing a slightly stronger labor market than expectations of -2,000 to 220,000. Stock prices today are being undercut by increased US/Iran tensions on overnight news that Iran shot down a U.S. drone and the U.S. Central Command responded that "this was an unprovoked attack on a U.S. surveillance asset in international airspace." The VIX volatility index ($VIX) today fell to a 1-1/2 month low of 13.19% but has since rebounded higher and is up +0.36 to 14.69%. The VIX remains far below the 5-week high from June 3 of 19.75% and the early-May 5-1/2 month high of 23.38%.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
E-Mini S&P 500 Index
Contract Size
$50 times Index
Tick Size
0.25 points ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (Settles 3:15p.m.) CST
Exchange
CME
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$6,930/6,300
First Notice Date
12/21/18
Expiration Date
12/21/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

S&P 500 E-Mini Dec '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Dec Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jun 11, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
1,983,867 (+37,085)
2,006,438 (+30,214)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
423,078 (-18,655)
368,157 (+16,341)
Dealers / Intermediary - Long / Short
226,972 (+8,347)
579,688 (-3,016)
Asset / Manager - Long / Short
1,422,136 (+72,427)
634,425 (-15,201)
Leveraged Funds - Long / Short
225,209 (-84,279)
415,710 (+37,673)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
102,371 (-6,119)
314,515 (-955)
Get Realtime - Quotes and Charts for Futures Traders. Learn More >>

Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
2,441.00 +0.73%
on 12/20/18
2,814.00 -12.62%
on 12/03/18
-190.10 (-7.18%)
since 11/21/18
3-Month
2,441.00 +0.73%
on 12/20/18
2,944.75 -16.50%
on 10/03/18
-474.85 (-16.19%)
since 09/21/18
52-Week
2,441.00 +0.73%
on 12/20/18
2,947.00 -16.56%
on 09/21/18
-236.10 (-8.76%)
since 12/21/17

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 100% Sell with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is in the Top 1%. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is in highly oversold territory. Beware of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 2,502.03
1st Resistance Point 2,480.47
Last Price 2,458.90s
1st Support Level 2,448.12
2nd Support Level 2,437.33

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52-Week High 2,947.00
Fibonacci 61.8% 2,753.71
Fibonacci 50% 2,694.00
Fibonacci 38.2% 2,634.29
Last Price 2,458.90s
52-Week Low 2,441.00

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InsideFutures Commentary

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