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U.S. Dollar Index Jun '19 (DXM19)

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U.S. Dollar Index Futures Market News and Commentary

Dollar Index Closes Rallies to 2-week High on Strong U.S. Economic Data

The dollar index (DXY00) on Friday rallied sharply to a new 2-week high and closed the day up +0.55 (+0.56%). June euro-fx futures (E6M9) closed -0.0072 (-0.64%), and EUR/USD (^EURUSD) fell -0.0068 (-0.60%). June yen futures (J6M9) closed down -0.0020 (-0.22%), and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) rose +0.17 (+0.16%). The dollar index on Friday rallied on solid U.S. economic reports that were hawkish for Fed policy. The U.S. May retail sales report of +0.5% m/m for both the headline and ex-autos reports was close to expectations of +0.6% headline and +0.4% ex-autos. Meanwhile, the U.S. May industrial production report of +0.4% m/m was stronger than expectations of +0.2%. The preliminary-June U.S. consumer sentiment index fell by -2.1 points to 97.9, but that was in line with market expectations and U.S. consumer sentiment remains generally strong. The Chinese yuan on Friday's weakened slightly by -0.1% due to Friday's weak Chinese May industrial production report of +5.0% y/y, which was the weakest report since 2002 and indicated that the Chinese manufacturing sector continues to slow due to the US/Chinese trade war. GBP/USD fell sharply on Friday and closed -0.67% at $1.2589/GBP, just mildly above the late-May 5-1/2 month low of $1.2559/GBP. Boris Johnson is cruising to victory in the Conservative Party leadership race and the markets are concerned about a no-deal Brexit given his vow to take the UK out of the EU by the October 31 deadline even if a no-deal Brexit is required as a last resort. Conservative Party MPs will whittle down the list of candidates from the current list of six to just two candidates with votes next Tuesday through Thursday. The final two candidates will then be voted on by grassroot Conservative Party members and a new Party leader and Prime Minister will take power in the week of July 22. Big Picture Dollar Factors: Bullish factors for the dollar index include (1) the Fed's balance sheet drawdown program through September and the Fed-dot forecast for one more rate hike in 2020 vs near-zero policy rates by the ECB and BOJ, (2) relative strength in the U.S. economy, and (3) the repatriation of U.S. corporate overseas cash under the 2018 tax law. Bearish factors include (1) the recent decline in the 10-year T-note yield to a 1-3/4 year low of 2.052%, which weakens the dollar's interest rate differentials, (2) market expectations of an 80% chance for a rate cut at the July FOMC meeting, (3) trade tensions and Washington political uncertainty, and (4) the wide U.S. budget and current account deficits. Bearish factors for EUR/USD include (1) the ECB's promise to leave interest rates unchanged at least through mid-2020, (2) weak Eurozone economic growth, (3) the slump in the 10-year bund yield to a record low of -0.270%, which undercuts the euro's interest rate differentials, and (4) Brexit risks.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
U.S. Dollar Index
Contract Size
$1,000 times Index
Tick Size
0.005 points ($5.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (5:00p.m. Sunday) (Settles 2:00p.m.) CST
Exchange
ICE/US
Point Value
$1,000
Margin/Maintenance
$1,815/1,650
First Notice Date
06/17/19 (1 day)
Expiration Date
06/17/19 (1 day)

Seasonal Chart

U.S. Dollar Index Jun '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Jun Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jun 11, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
3,458 (+2,597)
30,089 (+236)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
36,885 (-2,463)
12,896 (-218)
Dealers / Intermediary - Long / Short
568 (+60)
26,437 (-39)
Asset / Manager - Long / Short
15,175 (-6,086)
2,990 (+185)
Leveraged Funds - Long / Short
21,516 (+5,035)
11,000 (-1,012)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
1,796 (-79)
1,270 (-320)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
96.405 +1.21%
on 06/07/19
98.260 -0.70%
on 05/23/19
+0.248 (+0.25%)
since 05/14/19
3-Month
95.170 +2.52%
on 03/20/19
98.260 -0.70%
on 05/23/19
+1.331 (+1.38%)
since 03/14/19

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 64% Buy with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 98.003
1st Resistance Point 97.787
Last Price 97.570s
1st Support Level 97.147
2nd Support Level 96.723

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52-Week High 98.260
Last Price 97.570s
Fibonacci 61.8% 96.002
Fibonacci 50% 95.305
Fibonacci 38.2% 94.608
52-Week Low 92.350

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