Jul 10 2020
July WASDE Preview and Market Update Recap
Yesterday we hosted the third webinar in our Grain Market Update Series. For this webinar, our Head of Strategy, Keith Petersen was joined by Jacquie Holland, Grain Market Analyst at Farm Progress. The two previewed the upcoming July WASDE report, gave a market update, talked about the latest cmdty Yield Forecasts, and then hosted a live Q&A. If you missed it, no worries, you’ve come to the right place!
Jacquie began by pointing out that there were 5 million fewer acres of corn planted this year, which is the largest difference from the prior year in at least 12 years. She said that for production, that means there will be about 1 billion fewer bushels produced than we expected on March 31 and we will have about 15 billion crops, if crop conditions allow.
Jackie explained that ethanol is bouncing back and production is up 70% after pandemic lows, while gasoline is still off of last year's pace but there is still hope as the world continues to recover.
We then learned that USDA is forecasting an 18% increase in corn exports next year, but may be an aggressive target considering the current marketing year exports are down 17% from the 5 year average.
Jacquie informed the audience that in last Tuesday’s report, soybean acreage received a 300,000 acre bump to 83.8 million acres which will total about 4.1 billion acres if the weather holds.
If we can keep these crop conditions in good shape, Jacquie proposed the question, what will we do with all these soybeans? Soybean demand is expected to set a record high on strong domestic crush demand. Jacquie explains that this is really good thing because YTD soybean exports are nearly 20% lower than the 5 year average.
While soybean exports are looking good, wheat exports..not so much. Wheat exports are looking to be very low because of global competition. Russia and Europe are both seeing record wheat production as you can see in the graph below.
After Jacquie finished with her awesome market update, Keith jumped in to tell us about the latest Yield Forecasts from cmdty. We just release a new yield forecast report on Tuesday with corn at 173.8 bu/ac and soybeans at 48.4 bu/ac. He then went into detail covering the state level estimates for both corn and soybeans.
Keith let everyone know that you can sign up to receive our Yield Forecast Reports twice a month for free. This report is published on the first and third Tuesday of every month and covers both the national and state levels with updates from major crop production areas.
These daily estimates are also available within our commodity trading platform, cmdtyView Pro. These can be viewed both geospatially in our maps or through our cash grain prices windows where you can filter and pull whatever data you want.
After an in-depth overview of how to access and use our forecasts, there was a live Q&A with Jacquie. These two sure covered a lot of ground, too much to fit into one blog post, so be sure to check out the full webinar here. If you would like to access our yield forecast updates, you can sign up for cmdtyView Pro, or our free yield forecast report released the first and third Tuesday of each month. Lastly, be sure to register for our entire market update series so you can be prepared for each WASDE and Crop Production release, and also hear about the latest from cmdty by Barchart.