Trend Spotter Help Page

Trend information is calculated using the Trend Spotter© program. Barchart.com's Trend Spotter program is a computerized trend analysis system, developed over several years. Trend Spotter has been programmed to produce trend results on all the markets we cover on our service. This program uses a combination of long and short term algorithms, attempting to find a general trend for a specific market.

The system uses a combination of wave theory, market momentum and volatility, and is based on past patterns. Trend Spotter is a computer program that runs each night during our production, calculating the Trend of a market using the prices in our database, there is no human intervention involved.

Trend Spotter tends to give best results in medium term (about 4 - 10 weeks).

The entry and exit points are based on market-on-close (MOC) orders, your broker will know what MOC means. When you wish to lock in a profit from a winning trend, buying an option can be an inexpensive vehicle to accomplish this, rather than liquidating part of the futures position.

The exit points can trail the price movement in a way that gives up a fair amount of the gain in a market reversal. Long term analysis shows however that the exit points are close to the statistically correct prices to maximize gains taking the long term view of many trades over a number of years.

Current Trends

Current Trends are a list of all current trends. The current trends file can contain up to the nearest 4 contracts to expire per commodity. We also list the Trend results of all the other contracts with their daily chart and statistics. The "*" after the last price of a current trend indicates a losing trend.

Below is an example from the current trends file from 11/25/97 

                  Start  Entry   Last    Exit
         Trend     Date  Price  Price   Price   Profit   Quick Link
JY Dec Bearish 08/19/97   8605   7877    8192    $9100   Japanese Yen
The contract is the Dec 1997 Yen. The trend is bearish. Bearish means a down trend and bullish is an up trend. The trend started on 08/19/97 at an entry price of 8605. This was the closing price at the end of the previous session on 08/15/97 (Friday). This is a MOC order.

The next column is the last price of 7877. This is the price of JYZ97 at the end of the market on this day (11/25/97).

The next column is the Exit Price 8192, this is the price the contract would have to go over to end the trend, notice how far away this price is from today's price of 7877.

The final column is the profit. This is the difference between the entry price of the trend (8605) and today's price (7877). So at $12.50 per tick this is $9,100. This is calculated as a one lot and does not include slippage or commissions.

Neutral Trends

Neutral Trends are a listing of all the contracts we feature on our site outside Trend Spotters trending range, with the closing prices which would make a either a long or short trend. After a trend has exited its current trend it is moved into the Neutral Trends file, where it must stay for a minimum of 1 trading day even if it passes its long or short enter point. This is to avoid swings in the market.

Historic Trends

Historic Trends are an accounting of our Trend Spotter Program since we began putting Trend Spotter on the Internet in April of 1996. All current Trends are artificially closed and put into the historic trends file the last trading day of the month before expiration. All other trends enters the historic trends file when the trend passes its exit points listed in the current trends file.

When viewing the historic trends file it is important to remember that all trends are taken as 1 lots. A one lot of S&P moving only one tick was worth $500 (it has since been halved). This is worth 40 ticks in the Japanese Yen @ $12.50 per tick.