Barchart.com U.S. Morning Call for Friday, November 20, 2009
Overnight Developments
- The European DJ Stoxx 50 this morning is down -1.12% and Dec S&Ps are down -9.20 points. Treasuries and the dollar are higher, while most commodity prices weakened. Global stock markets are mostly lower after Dell reported a 54% drop in Q3 profit and after ECB President Trichet signaled his bank is ready to end some of the extraordinary stimulus measures put in place during the financial crisis. At a conference in Frankfurt today, President Trichet said "any non-standard measure whose continuation would pose a threat to the achievement of price stability must be undone promptly and unequivocally." Trichet has already hinted the ECB is unlikely to renew its offer of 12-month loans to banks after December and has stated that the exit from emergency lending measures doesn't necessarily mean they will raise interest rates anytime soon. European stocks had gained earlier as steelmakers rallied after Goldman Sachs said the outlook for steelmakers is improving. Also boosting stocks was the Oct German producer prices that came in weaker-than-expected at unchanged m/m and -7.6% y/y, the eighth consecutive month of year-over-year declines.
- The Asian markets today closed mostly lower with Japan down -0.54%, Hong Kong -0.83%, China -0.31%, Taiwan -0.99%, Australia -1.33%, Singapore +0.10%, South Korea -0.06%, India +1.41%. Asian shares weakened when Sony fell 2.4% after it said it will take longer to reach its profitability target. Sony said it's aiming for a 10% return on equity by March 2013, later than its previous target of March 2011. The BOJ kept interest rates unchanged at 0.1% and said "Japan's economy is picking up mainly due to various policy measures taken at home and abroad, although the momentum of a self-sustaining recovery in domestic private demand remains weak." Earlier, Deputy Prime Minister Kan said the economy "is in a mild deflationary phase," referring to declining prices in its evaluation for the first time since Jun 2006. By highlighting deflation, the Japanese government is putting pressure on the BOJ to increase its accommodative measures such as increasing its purchases of government bonds to fight deflation. BOJ Governor Shirakawa said inflationary expectations are stable and the financial system is solid, signaling he sees little risk price declines will snowball into a deflationary spiral.
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Overnight U.S. Stock News
- December S&Ps this morning are trading down -9.20 points. The US stock market yesterday sold off fairly sharply (Dow Jones -0.90%, S&P 500 -1.34%, Nasdaq Composite -1.66%). Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from the drop in European and Asian stock markets on concern that current valuations are not merited by the pace of the global economic recovery, (2) weakness in technology stocks after Bank of America Merrill Lynch downgraded the global chip industry to "negative" from "positive," saying the supply of chips is growing faster than demand and putting earnings at risk, (3) the fall in bank stocks after well-known bank analyst Meredith Whitney said that "banks are grossly overvalued" and what "scares" her most is the government stepping away from buying mortgage-backed securities, (4) the report from the Mortgage Bankers Association that showed Q3 US mortgage delinquencies jumped to 9.64%, the highest since data began in 1979, and (5) a decline in raw-material and energy producers after strength in the dollar caused commodity prices to tumble.
- Bullish factors included (1) the drop in weekly US continuing unemployment claims to an 8-month low (-39,000 to 5.611 million), (2) the larger-than-expected increase in the Nov Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index to its highest level in 2-1/3 years (+5.2 to 16.7 versus expectations of +0.7 to 12.2), (3) the OECD's hike in its 2010 GDP forecast for the 30-member OECD group to +1.9% from its June forecast of +0.7% and the hike in its US 2010 GDP forecast to +2.5% from +0.9%, (4) Philadelphia Fed President Plosser's comment that the US economy is "on the mend" and may strengthen in coming quarters and that he is "less fearful" than he was three months ago of a renewed recession, and (5) the prediction from Goldman Sachs analyst Abby Cohen that the weak dollar is making American equity and the assets of US companies more attractive to international buyers.
- Dell (DELL) slipped over 6% in after-hours trading after the world's third-biggest personal computer maker reported Q3 adjusted profit of 23 cents a share, below the analyst consensus of 27 cents, as it lost market share and higher PC component costs cut into profit.
- ADC Telecommunications (ADCT) sank nearly 10% in European trading after it forecast Q1 revenue of $250 million to $275 million, below analysts' extimates of $270.4 million, saying spending from clients will drop "considerably."
Today's U.S. Market Focus
- December 10-year T-notes this morning are trading up +6.5 ticks as global equity markets tumble. Dec T-note prices yesterday traded in positive territory the entire day and closed up +7 ticks at 119-210. Dec T-notes matched their 6-1/2 month high and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-month low of 3.305%. Bullish factors yesterday included (1) an increase in the safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the sharp sell-off in the stock market, (2) comments from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser who said he’s not concerned about inflation in the short run as prices aren’t "out of alignment," and (3) the report from the Mortgage Bankers Association that Q3 US mortgage delinquencies jumped to 9.64%, the highest since data began in 1979. Bearish factors for T-note prices yesterday included (1) the drop in weekly US continuing unemployment claims to an 8-month low (-39,000 to 5.611 million), (2) the larger-than-expected increase in the Nov Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index to its highest level in 2-1/3 years (+5.2 to 16.7 versus expectations of +0.7 to 12.2), and (3) supply pressures after the Treasury announced it will auction a record $118 billion of 2, 5 and 7-year T-notes next week.
- The dollar index this morning is stronger with the dollar/yen +0.04 yen and the euro/dollar -1.11 cents. The dollar index yesterday closed moderately higher. Bullish factors included (1) the sell-off in the equity market which increased the safe-haven demand for the dollar, (2) jawboning by Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the Euro-Zone finance ministers, who said that the euro is "overvalued at the moment and the dollar is too weak," and (3) comments from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser who said that much of the dollar's decline over the last year has just been a reversal of the run-up in the dollar after the panic in financial markets. Bearish factors included (1) the prediction from Citigroup that the yen-yuan cross indicates that the yen will strengthen to a 14-year high of 84 per dollar by month-end, and (2) comments from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser that reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar when he said he is "less fearful" than he was three months ago about a renewed recession.
- December crude oil prices this morning are trading down -89 cents a barrel and Dec gasoline is trading -1.52 cents a gallon. Dec crude yesterday retreated the entire day and closed down -$2.12 at barrel. Dec gasoline yesterday closed down -4.19 cents a gallon. Bearish factors yesterday included (1) strength in the dollar, and (2) the plunge in the equity market which raised concerns about the sustainability of an economic recovery and fuel demand. Bullish factors yesterday included (1) the OECD's hike in its 2010 GDP estimate for the OECd countries to 1.9% from its June forecast of 0.7%, which was positive for energy demand, and (2) the larger-than expected increase in the Nov Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index to a 2-1/3 year high, indicating an improvement in the economy which may lead to an increase in energy demand.
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Today's U.S. Earnings Reports
Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) SJM-JM Smucker (BEST earnings consensus $1.03), DHI-D.R. Horton (-0.31), ANN-AnnTaylor Stores (0.07), CRMT-America's Car-Mart (0.42), KIRK-Kirkland's (0.08)
Global Financial Calendar
| Friday 11/20/2009 |
| |
| United States |
| n/a | No economic reports or speaking events are scheduled. |
| Germany |
| 0200 ET | Oct German producer prices expected +0.1% m/m and –7.5% y/y, Sep –0.5% m/m and –7.6% y/y. |
| Euro-Zone |
| 0300 ET | ECB Council member Axel Weber speaks at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress on “After the Crisis.” |
| 0530 ET | ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet speaks at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress on “After the Crisis.” |
Morning Quote Board
| Morning Quotes (ET) | Last | Chg | %chg | Updated |
| US Stock Futures |
| S&P (Globex) (Z9) | 1085.10 | -9.20 | -0.84% | 07:16:24 |
| DJIA (CBOT) (Z9) | 10250 | -77 | -0.75% | 07:13:25 |
| | | | |
| European Stocks |
| Europe DJ Stoxx 50 | 2460.87 | -27.84 | -1.12% | 07:11:15 |
| London UK FTSE Index | 5232.83 | -34.87 | -0.66% | 07:11:15 |
| German Dax Index | 5654.36 | -47.82 | -0.84% | 07:11:26 |
| French CAC 40 Index | 3725.43 | -34.79 | -0.93% | 07:11:15 |
| | | | |
| Asian-Pacific Stocks |
| Japan Nikkei Index | 9498 | -52 | -0.54% | 02:00:15 |
| Hong Kong Hang Seng | 22456 | -187 | -0.83% | 03:01:30 |
| China CSI 300 Index | 3631 | -11 | -0.31% | 02:01:04 |
| Taiwan TAIEX Index | 7683 | -77 | -0.99% | 00:46:01 |
| Australian S&P 200 | 4685.8 | -63.4 | -1.33% | 00:47:03 |
| Singapore Str. Times | 2761.54 | 2.75 | 0.10% | 04:10:01 |
| South Korea KOSPI 200 | 213.76 | -0.13 | -0.06% | 04:03:27 |
| Bombay Sensex 30 | 17022 | 236.2 | 1.41% | 05:30:00 |
| Karachi KSE-100 | 9306 | 55 | 0.60% | 06:51:30 |
| | | | |
| US Interest Rates |
| 10yr T-notes (CBT)(Z9) | 119.275 | 0.065 | 0.17% | 07:16:18 |
| Cash 10yr T-note Price | 100.130 | 0.025 | 0.08% | 07:25:00 |
| Cash 10yr T-note Yield | 3.327 | -0.009 | -0.28% | 07:24 |
| 5yr T-note (CBT)(Z9) | 117.235 | 0.055 | 0.14% | 07:16:25 |
| Cash 5yr T-note Price | 101.045 | 0.025 | 0.08% | 07:24:00 |
| Cash 5yr T-note Yield | 2.130 | -0.017 | -0.79% | 07:23 |
| 30-yr T-bond (CBT)(Z9) | 121.01 | 0.07 | 0.18% | 07:16:25 |
| Cash 30yr T-bond Price | 101.230 | 0.025 | 0.08% | 07:20:00 |
| Cash 30yr T-bond Yield | 4.273 | -0.005 | -0.11% | 07:19 |
| Eurodollars (CME)(Z9) | 99.740 | 0.005 | 0.01% | 07:12:42 |
| Eurodollars (CME)(H0) | 99.680 | 0.015 | 0.02% | 07:14:05 |
| | | | |
| Asian & European Rates |
| 10-yr JGBs (TSE) (Z9) | 139.25 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 01:00:00 |
| EuroyenTibor(SGX)(Z9) | 99.495 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 11/20/2009 |
| Bunds (Eurex) (Z9) | 122.56 | 0.08 | 0.07% | 07:11:20 |
| Euribor (Eurex) (Z9) | 99.27 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 04:30:19 |
| UK Gilts (Liffe) (Z9) | 118.86 | 0.23 | 0.19% | 07:11:20 |
| Short Stlg (Liffe) (Z9) | 99.41 | 0.01 | 0.01% | 07:10:20 |
| | | | |
| Forex |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 75.79 | 0.52 | 0.69% | 07:16:25 |
| US Dollar-Japanese Yen | 89.01 | 0.04 | 0.04% | 07:26:26 |
| EuroFX-US Dollar | 1.4814 | -0.0111 | -1.11% | 07:26:27 |
| US Dollar-Swiss Franc | 1.0213 | 0.0083 | 0.83% | 07:26:27 |
| British Pound-US$ | 1.6469 | -0.0198 | -1.98% | 07:26:27 |
| US$-Canadian Dlr | 1.0714 | 0.0077 | 0.77% | 07:26:27 |
| Yen (Globex) (Z9) | 1.1231 | -0.0006 | -0.06% | 07:16:24 |
| Euro FX (Globex) (Z9) | 1.4819 | -0.0098 | -0.66% | 07:16:26 |
| SwissFranc (Globex)(Z9) | 0.9797 | -0.0073 | -0.74% | 07:16:23 |
| British Pound(Glbx)(Z9) | 1.6478 | -0.0166 | -1.00% | 07:16:26 |
| Canadian$ (Globex)(Z9) | 0.9341 | -0.0071 | -0.75% | 07:16:26 |
| | | | |
| Commodities |
| Gold (Comex) (Z9) | 1137.4 | -4.5 | -0.39% | 07:16:24 |
| Silver (Comex) (Z9) | 18.195 | -0.260 | -1.41% | 07:16:26 |
| Copper (Comex) (Z9) | 305.9 | -2.3 | -0.73% | 07:16:13 |
| Crude Oil (Nymex) (Z9) | 76.57 | -0.89 | -1.15% | 07:14:06 |
| Gasoline (Nymex) (Z9) | 195.43 | -1.52 | -0.77% | 07:16:21 |
| Heating Oil(Nymex) (Z9) | 197.08 | -2.56 | -1.28% | 07:15:57 |
| NaturalGas(Nymex)(Z9) | 4.305 | -0.037 | -0.85% | 07:15:57 |
| Corn (CBOT) (Z9) | 391.25 | -3.75 | -0.95% | 07:15:56 |
| Soybeans (CBOT) (F0) | 1043.50 | 4.50 | 0.43% | 07:16:16 |
| Wheat (CBOT) (Z9) | 557.25 | -5.25 | -0.93% | 07:16:25 |