OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.43%) this morning are up +0.43% and European stocks are up +0.21% ahead of the release of the U.S. Nov payrolls report, which may clarify the timing of when the Fed starts to taper stimulus. Gains in European stocks were limited after German Oct factory orders fell more than expected. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.81%, Hong Kong +0.13%, China -0.64%, Taiwan -0.09%, Australia -0.23%, Singapore -0.33%, South Korea -0.15%, India +0.18%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rebounded from a 2-week low and closed higher after the chairman of the Japan Government Pension Fund (GPIF), the world's biggest retirement fund, said the fund should boost its holdings of Japanese stocks. Commodity prices are mixed. Jan crude oil (CLF14 -0.15%) is down -0.16%. Jan gasoline (RBF14 +0.69%) is up +0.55%. Feb gold (GCG14 -0.39%) is down -0.40%. March copper (HGH14 +0.46%) is up +0.48% at a 1-1/2 week high on signs of reduced global supplies after weekly Shanghai copper inventories tumbled to a 17-month low and LME copper inventories slipped to a 9-1/2 month low. Agricultural and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.12%) is up +0.09%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.05% at a 5-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.32% as the yen weakened after the chairman of the GPIF said the fund needs to immediately cut its holdings of Japanese government debt to seek higher returns elsewhere. March T-note prices (ZNH14 +0.01%) are up +1.5 ticks.
German Oct factory orders fell -2.2% m/m, the biggest decline in 11-months and a bigger drop than expectations of -1.0% m/m. On an annual basis, Oct factory orders rose +1.9% y/y, less than expectations of +4.1% y/y.
The Japan Oct leading index CI rose +0.7 from Sep to 109.9, more than expectations of +0.5 to 109.7 and the best level in 5-months. The Oct coincident index climbed +1.2 from Sep to 109.6, slightly less than expectations of +1.3 to 109.7, but still the best level in 5-1/4 years.
UK Nov Halifax house prices rose +1.1% m/m and +7.7% 3-mo/year-over-year, better than expectations of +0.8% m/m and +7.3% 3-mo/year-over-year with the +7.7% 3-mo/year-over-year increase the biggest in 6-years.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEWToday’s Nov payroll report is expected to show an increase of +181,000, which would be an encouraging increase coming on the heels of October’s strong report of +204,000. Today’s Nov unemployment rate is expected to fall by -0.1 point to match September’s 5-year low of 7.2%. Today’s early-Dec U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to show a +0.9 point increase to 76.0, adding to the +1.9 point increase to 75.1 seen in November. Today’s Oct PCE deflator is expected to fall to +0.7% y/y from +0.9% y/y in September. Meanwhile, the Oct PCE core deflator, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is expected to ease to +1.1% y/y from +1.2% y/y in September. There is only one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: American Eagle Outfitters (consensus $0.19). There are no equity conferences today.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Genesco (GCO -0.53%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.43, better than consensus of $1.38.
Manitowoc (MTW +0.48%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman.
Cubic (CUB +0.26%) lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $2.60-$2.75, well below consensus of $3.09.
Five Below (FIVE -3.94%) slid 6% in after-hours trading after it said it sees fiscal 2013 adjusted EPS of 70 cents-72 cents, below consensus of 73 cents.
Cooper Companies (COO +1.40%) said it sees fiscal 2014 EPS of $6.70-$7.00, on the lower end of consensus at $7.00.
Big Lots (BIG -0.08%) dropped over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q3 adjusted EPS loss of -16 cents, double consensus of an -8 cent loss, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2013 adjusted EPS to $1.42-$1.65, well below consensus of $2.94.
Ulta Salon (ULTA -4.44%) plunged over 16% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 72 cents, weaker than consensus of 74 cents.
FedEx Corp (FDX -0.35%) said it will increase shipping rates for FedEx Ground and FedEx Home Delivery by an average of 4.9% effective January 6, 2014.
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.43%) this morning are up +7.75 points (+0.43%). The S&P 500 index on Thursday closed lower on concern the Fed may taper QE3 sooner than expected after (1) U.S. Q3 GDP was revised up to a +3.6% q/q annualized pace from +2.8% q/q annualized, stronger than expectations of +3.1% q/q annualized and the fastest pace of expansion in 1-1/2 years, and (2) after weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell -23,000 to 298,000, better than expectations of a +4,000 increase to 320,000 and the lowest in 2-3/4 months. Closes: S&P 500 -0.43%, Dow Jones -0.43%, Nasdaq 100 -0.15%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 +0.01%) this morning are up +1.5 ticks. Mar T-notes on Thursday dropped to a 2-1/2 month low and closed lower after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data on Q3 GDP and weekly jobless claims heightened speculation the Fed may taper QE3 as soon as the Dec 17-18 FOMC meeting. T-notes recovered from their worst levels after stocks fell, which boosted the safe-haven demand for Treasuries. Closes: TYH4 -8.00, FVH4 -5.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.12%) this morning is up +0.072 (+0.09%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0007 (+0.05%) at a 5-week high and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.33 (+0.32%). The dollar index on Thursday tumbled to a 1-month low and closed lower. Negative factors included (1) strength in EUR/USD which rallied to a 5-week high after the ECB raised its Eurozone 2014 GDP estimate to 1.1% from 1.0% and after the ECB refrained from additional stimulus measures, and (2) long liquidation caused by trepidation ahead of Friday's U.S. Nov payrolls report and the implication it will have on the timing of when the Fed starts to taper QE3. Closes: Dollar index -0.384 (-0.48%), EUR/USD +0.0074 (+0.55%), USD/JPY -0.563 (-0.55%).
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF14 -0.15%) this morning is down -16 cents (-0.16%) and Jan gasoline (RBF14 +0.69%) is up +0.0149 (+0.55%). Jan crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday settled mixed. Jan crude posted a 5-week high on bullish factors that included (1) the slide in the dollar index to a 1-month low, and (2) the larger-than-expected upward revision to U.S. Q3 GDP to 3.6% q/q annualized, the strongest in 1-1/2 years, which suggests robust energy demand. Gasoline closed lower on negative carry-over from Wednesday's EIA report that showed gasoline inventories rose more than expected to a 1-month high. Closes: CLF4 +1.16 (+0.18%), RBF4 -0.0065 (-0.24%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/06/2013
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/06/2013