OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.59%) this morning are down -0.56% and European stocks are down -0.86%, both at 1-1/2 week lows, as company earnings results disappointed. Samsung, the world's biggest smartphone maker, fell 3.7% in South Korea and led technology stocks lower after it reported Q2 net income that fell short of consensus, while Lufthansa dropped nearly 6% after Europe's second-largest airline said Q2 profit fell and predicted travel markets will remain weak in the second half of this year. Standard & Poor's said Argentina was in default after it missed an interest payment on $13 billion of debt. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.16%, Hong Kong +0.10%, China +1.22%, Taiwan -1.39%, Australia +0.18%, Singapore +0.61%, South Korea -0.55%, India -0.74%. China's Shanghai Stock Index climbed to its highest level in 7-1/2 months on speculation government stimulus and reform measures will boost economic growth. Commodity prices are mixed. Sep crude oil (CLU14 -0.72%) is down -0.74% at a 2-week low as it fell below $100 a barrel on dollar strength. Sep gasoline (RBU14 -0.56%) is down -0.69% at a 3-1/2 month low. Aug gold (GCQ14 -0.05%) is up +0.05%. Sep copper (HGU14 -0.06%) is up +0.11%. Agriculture and livestock prices are lower. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.08%) is up +0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.07% after weaker-than-expected Eurozone Jul CPI boosted the prospects for additional ECB easing measures. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.08%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 -0.01%) are unchanged.
The Eurozone Jul CPI estimate unexpectedly weakened to +0.4% y/y, lower than expectations of unch at +0.5% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 4-3/4 years. The Jul core CPI rose +0.8% y/y, right on expectations.
The Eurozone Jun unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 11.5%, better than expectations of no change at 11.6% y/y and the lowest in 1-3/4 years.
The German Jul unemployment change fell -12,000, over double expectations of -5,000 and the first decrease in 3 months. The Jul unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, right on expectations and the lowest since data for a reunified Germany began in 1991.
German Jun retail sales were mixed as sales rose +1.3% m/m, better than expectations of +1.0% m/m, but rose only +0.4% y/y, less than expectations of +1.3% y/y.
UK Jul GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly fell -3 points to -2, weaker than expectations of +1 to 2.
UK Jul nationwide house prices rose +0.1% m/m and +10.6% y/y, less than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +11.3% y/y.
Japan Jun labor cash earnings rose +0.4% y/y, less than expectations of +0.8% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a +16,000 gain to 300,000, reversing most of last week’s -19,000 decline to 284,000. Meanwhile, today’s continuing claims report is expected to show a -8,000 decline to 2.492 million, matching last week’s decline of -8,000 to 2.500 million. Today’s Q2 employment cost index is expected to strengthen to +0.5% q/q (+2.0% annualized) from +0.3% (+1.2% annualized) in Q1. Today’s July Chicago PMI report is expected to show a +0.4 point increase to 63.0, recovering some of the sharp -2.9 point loss to 62.6 seen in June.
There are 51 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Mastercard (consensus $0.77), Exxon (1.86), Kellogg (1.02), Expedia (0.76), CME Group (0.79), Time Warner (1.90), ConocoPhillips (1.61), Marathon Petroleum (2.20), ADP (0.63), Excelon (0.50). Equity conferences this week include the following: Institute of Validation technology on Tue-Thu, and Marcus Evans 13th Annual Outage Management for Power Plants Conference on Tue-Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
CME Group (CME +0.44%) reported Q2 EPS of 77 cents, below consensus of 79 cents.
Avon Products (AVP +0.39%) reported Q2 EPS of 20 cents, weaker than consensus of 21 cents.
Con-way (CNW +0.19%) reported Q2 EPS of 91 cents, well above consensus of 75 cents.
Lam Research (LRCX -1.32%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.25, better than consensus of $1.23.
Western Digital (WDC +0.38%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.85, stronger than consensus of $1.74.
Unum Group (UNM -0.46%) reported Q2 EPS of 94 cents, higher than consensus of 87 cents.
Hologic (HOLX +1.68%) reported Q3 EPS of 37 cents, better than consensus of 34 cents, and then raisd guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view ex-items to $1.44-$1.45 from $1.37-$1.40, higher than consensus of $1.40.
Allstate (ALL -0.28%) gained nearly 3% in after-hours tradng after it reported Q2 operating EPS of $1.01, well above consensus of 70 cents.
MetLife (MET +0.65%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.39, less than consensus of $1.41.
Kraft Foods (KRFT -0.90%) dropped over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 80 cents, weaker than consensus of 83 cents.
Fortune Brands (FBHS +0.11%) reported Q2 EPS of 55 cents, higher than consensus of 54 cents, although Q2 revenue of $1.14 billion was slightly less than consensus of $1.17 billion.
Whiting Petroleum (WLL -0.13%) rose over 1% in after-hours trading after it reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $1.40, stronger than consensus of $1.28.
AMC Entertainment (AMC -0.31%) reported Q2 EPS of 32 cents, higher than consensus of 29 cents.
Whole Foods Market (WFM +3.80%) fell over 4% in afer-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 41 cents, better than consensus of 39 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $1.52-$1.54 from $1.52-$1.56, at the low end of consensus of $1.53.
Akamai (AKAM +2.93%) reported Q2 EPS of 58 cents, higher than consensus of 55 cents.
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.59%) this morning are down -11,00 points (-0.56%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday recovered from a 1-1/2 week low and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.01%, Dow Jones -0.19%, Nasdaq +0.43%. Bullish factors included (1) the +4.0% gain in U.S. Q2 GDP, stronger than expectations of +3.0% as Q2 personal consumption rose +2.5%, better than expectations of +1.9%, and (2) positive Q2 company earnings results as 77% of reporting S&P 500 companies have beaten estimates. A negative factor was the +218,000 increase in Jul ADP employment, less than expectations of +230,000.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 -0.01%) this morning are unch. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday tumbled to a 3-week low and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected U.S. Q2 GDP of +4.0%, which bolstered the outlook for the Fed to raise interest rates sooner rather than later, and (2) the +2.0% increase in the Q2 core PCE deflator, more than expectations of +1.9% and the fastest pace in 2-1/4 years. Closes: TYU4 -23.00, FVU4 -11.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.08%) this morning is up +0.048 (+0.06%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0010 (-0.07%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.08 (+0.08%). The dollar index on Wednesday soared to a 10-1/2 month high after the stronger-than-expected U.S. Q2 GDP report bolstered the outlook for the Fed to tighten monetary policy. EUR/USD fell to an 8-1/2 month low and USD/JPY rose to a 2-3/4 month high as the yen weakened on speculation the BOJ may expand its stimulus measures after Japan Jun industrial production fell -3.3% m/m, the most in 3-1/4 years. Closes: Dollar index +0.218 (+0.27%), EUR/USD -0.0012 (-0.09%), USD/JPY +0.672 (+0.66%).
Sep WTI crude oil (CLU14 -0.72%) this morning is down -74 cents (-0.74%) at a 2-week low and Sep gasoline (RBU14 -0.56%) is down -0.0194 (-0.69%) at a 3-1/2 month low. Sep crude and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed lower with Sep crude at a 2-week low and Sep gasoline at a 2-1/2 month low: CLU4 -1.29 (-1.28%), RBU4 -0.0419 (-1.47%). Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 10-1/2 month high, and (2) the +789,000 bbl increase in EIA distillate inventories to a 10-month high of 126.7 million bbl. Crude prices failed to rally on the -3.697 million bbl drop in weekly EIA inventories, three times more than expectations of a -1.25 million bbl draw.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/31/2014
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/31/2014