OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.05%) this morning are down -0.13% and European stocks are down -0.14% after Ukraine's Interior Minister said his country may mobilize 20,000 troops to protect its borders, which risks escalation of tensions with Russia. Losses in European stocks were limited after German Jan exports rose by the most in 8-months and after UK Jan manufacturing production rose more than expected. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.69%, Hong Kong +0.02%, China +0.52%, Taiwan +0.43%, Australia +0.04%, Singapore +0.09%, South Korea +0.40%, India -0.49%. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Apr crude oil (CLJ14 +0.06%) is up +0.22%. Apr gasoline (RBJ14 +0.20%) is up +0.21%. Apr gold (GCJ14 +0.58%) is up +0.55%. May copper (HGK14 +0.41%) is up +0.41%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed, although Apr hogs are up +1.08% at an all-time high. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) is up +0.13%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.25%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.01%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.05%) are up +0.5 of a tick.
The German Jan trade balance was in surplus by +15.0 billion euros, right on expectations. Jan exports rose +2.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.5% m/m and the most in 8-months. Jan imports climbed +4.1% m/m, more than expectations of +1.4% m/m and the most in 8-months.
The UK Feb BRC retail sales monitor like-for-like sales unexpectedly fell -1.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of a +1.8% y/y increase and the first decline in 10-months.
UK Jan industrial production rose +0.1% m/m and +2.9% y/y, slightly weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +3.0% y/y.
UK Jan manufacturing production climbed +0.4% m/m and +3.3% y/y, slightly better than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.3% y/y.
The BOJ maintained its pledge to expand the monetary base by 60 trillion to 70 trillion yen ($677 billion) per year and BOJ Governor Kuroda said "We will adjust policy without hesitation if achieving 2% inflation becomes problematic or if smooth progress isn't made toward the goal."
Japan Feb machine tool orders rose +26% y/y, the fifth consecutive month orders have risen.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today's Jan wholesale inventory report is expected to show an increase of +0.4% m/m, slightly higher than Dec's +0.3%. The Treasury today will sell $30 billion in 3-year T-notes. The Treasury will then conclude this week’s $64 billion coupon package by selling $21 billion in 10-year T-notes on Wednesday and $13 billion of 30-year T-bonds on Thursday. There are four of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: John Wiley (consensus $0.85), American Eagle Outfitters (0.26), Dick's Sporting Goods (1.11), and Verifone (0.27).
Equity conferences this week include: Credit Suisse Global Services Conference on Mon-Tue, Deutsche Bank Media, Internet & Telecom Conference on Mon-Wed, CeBIT 2014 on Mon-Wed, 27th International Copper Conference on Tue, ROTH Capital Partners Conference on Tue, Susquehanna Chemicals Conference on Tue, International Strategy Investment Group Industrial Conference on Tue, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Consumer & Retail Conference on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Technology, Media & Telecommunications Conference on Tue-Wed, J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Industrials Conference on Mon-Wed,
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
State Street (STT +0.09%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.
Northern Trust (NTRS +0.16%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Citigroup kept its 'Buy' rating on Cummins (CMI -1.18%) and raised its price target for shares to $163 from $145.
BNY Mellon (BK -0.51%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Apple (AAPL +0.09%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Sector Perform' at Pacific Crest.
Citigroup kept its 'Buy' rating on Facebook (FB +3.19%) and raised its price target on the shares to $85 from $70.
Macy's (M +0.12%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo.
Boyd Gaming (BYD -2.32%) rose over 8% in after-hours trading after Elliot announced a 4.99% stake in the company.
Coca-Cola reported a 10.1% stake in Keurig Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR -1.90%) .
Gramercy Funds reported a 19.9% passive stake in Banro Corporation (BAA -1.64%) .
La Jolla Pharmaceutical (LJJPC) surged over 50% in after-hours trading after it said its primary and key secondary endpoints were met in the Phase 2 trial of GCS-100 for chronic kidney disease.
United Natural Foods (UNFI +0.53%) reported Q2 EPS of 56 cents, right on consensus, but it reported Q2 revenue of $1.65 billion, better than consensus of $1.64 billion.
Urban Outfitters (URBN -0.13%) fell nearly 3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 59 cents, better than consensus of 55 cents, but CEO Richard Hayne said he expects poor weather to contrbute to lower sales and profit margins in Q1.
Casey's General Stores (CASY +2.29%) fell nearly 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 38 cents, well below consensus of 49 cents.
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.05%) this morning are down -2.50 points (-0.13%). The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower on signs of a slowdown in the global economy. China Feb exports unexpectedly tumbled -18.1% y/y, weaker than expectations for a +7.5% increase and the biggest decline in 4-1/2 years, while Japan Q4 GDP was revised lower to +0.7% from +0.9% (q/q annualized). The Ukraine crisis continued to be a bearish factor after Russia increased its troop presence in the Crimea region of Ukraine to 20,000 troops. Closes: S&P 500 -0.05%, Dow Jones -0.21%, Nasdaq 100 +0.08%.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.05%) this morning are up +0.5 of a tick. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed higher as global stocks fell on concern the world economy may be slowing after China Feb exports fell by the most in 4-1/2 years. Gains were limited by supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $64 billion in T-notes and bonds this week starting off with Tuesday’s $30 billion 3-year T-note auction. Closes: TYM4 +3.50, FVM4 +2.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) this morning is up +0.107 (+0.13%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0034 (-0.25%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.01 (+0.01%). The dollar index on Monday closed higher as weaker-than-expected Chinese trade data sparked a sell-off in global stocks that boosted the safe-haven demand for the dollar. EUR/USD found support on the increase in Eurozone Mar Sentix investor confidence to a 2-3/4 year high. Closes: Dollar index +0.049 (+0.06%), EUR/USD +0.0007 (+0.01%), USD/JPY -0.016 (-0.02%).
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ14 +0.06%) this morning is up +22 cents (+0.22%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ14 +0.20%) is up +0.0063 (+0.21%). Apr crude and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower on concern over Chinese energy demand. China Feb exports unexpectedly fell -18.1% y/y and bolstered concern the Chinese economy may be slowing, while China Feb crude imports tumbled -18% m/m to 23.05 MMT, another sign of weakened energy demand in China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer. Closes: CLJ4 -1.46 (-1.42%), RBJ4 -0.0244 (-0.82%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/11/2014
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/11/2014
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