OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.48%) this morning are up +0.52% and the EuroStoxx 50 index is up +1.35% on relief that the Chinese stock market today closed only -1.68% lower. U.S. and European stock indexes are also higher today on positive European takeover news today in the European pharma, utility and insurance industries. In one of the $15 billion worth of deals announced today, Melrose Industries Plc is up 10% after a deal to sell its metering-company Elster to Honeywell for $3.3 billion in cash. In another European deal announced today, Hikma Pharmaceutricals Plc announced that it agreed to buy Boehringer Ingelheim GmbH's Roxane business for $2.7 billion. Mining companies are higher in European trading after the sharp sell-off seen in the past 1-1/2 weeks.
The Chinese Shanghai Composite index on Monday plunged by -8.5% and was down by -5.1% on today's low, but the market was able to recover somewhat during the remainder of the session to close the day down by only -1.68%. The markets remain concerned that the Chinese government may have given up on some of its support measures but so far the Shanghai index has been able to remain well above the 4-1/2 month low posted on July 9. The markets were somewhat relieved that the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission late Monday released a statement on its website saying that the agency will continue to "stabilize" the market and "prevent systemic risk." Chinese stocks are down sharply this week on weekend news that the China July Markit flash manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell by -1.2 points to a 15-month low of 48.2 and that Chinese June industrial profits fell by -0.3% y/y.
Asian stocks today closed mixed despite continued bearish overhang from the Chinese stock market: Japan -0.10%, Hong Kong +0.62%, China -1.68%, Taiwan +0.30%, Australia -0.09%, Singapore -0.98%, South Korea +0.09%, India -0.37%, Turkey +1.37%.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.47%) this morning is up +0.406 (+0.42%) as some confidence returns with the upward rebound in U.S. and European stock indexes. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0056 (-0.51%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.51 (+0.41%). Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.17%) are down 9 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand with the upward rebound in the U.S. and European stock indexes.
Commodity prices are little changed on net this morning. Sep crude oil (CLU15 -0.55%) is down -0.34 (-0.72%), Sep Brent is down -0.73 (-1.37%), and Sep gasoline (RBU15 -1.22%) is down -0.0227 (-1.28%) as concerns continue about a worsening glut later this year if Iranian sanctions are dropped as expected. Precious metals are down on the upward rebound in the dollar index today with Aug gold (GCQ15 -0.39%) down -4.9 (-0.45%) and Sep silver (SIU15 -0.62%) down -0.040 (-0.27%). However, Sep copper (HGU15 +1.00%) is up +0.024 (+1.02%) on some relief that global stock markets have stabilized today. Grains are mixed today after yesterday's sharp declines. Sugar, cocoa and cotton are trading higher this morning but cocoa is mildly lower.
Today's UK Q2 GDP report of +0.7% q/q and +2.6% y/y was in line with market expectations and the quarter-on-quarter report of +0.7% strengthened from Q1's report of +0.4% q/q.
Greek bailout negotiations are scheduled to begin today in Athens as technical experts from the ECB, EC and IMF meet with their Greek counterparts. EU officials said today there is "no fixed deadline" for an agreement but that they see a deal in the second half of August. Meanwhile a dispute has arisen whether the Greek parliament must take additional measures to qualify for the bailout with the EU Commission saying that more measures will be necessary while the Greek Finance Ministry says that all measures have been taken. However, the Greek finance minister today said that Greece will fully implement the Eurogroup agreements to the last detail.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) May S&P-CaseShiller composite-20 home price index (expected +0.3% m/m and +5.6% y/y after April's +0.30% m/m and +4.91% y/y), (2) preliminary-July Markit services PMI (expected +0.2 to 55.0 after June's -1.4 to 54.8), (3) July U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board (expected -1.4 to 100.0 after June's +6.8 to 101.4), (4) Jul Richmond Fed manufacturing index (expected +1 to 7 after June's +5 to 6), and (5) the Treasury's auction of $26 billion of 2-year T-notes.
There are 41 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: UPS (consensus $1.26), Ford (0.37), Du Pont (1.22), Nielsen (0.64), Merck (0.81), Cummings (2.55), Pfizer (0.52), Citrix (0.82).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: EyeGate Pharmaceuticals (EYEG), Builders FirstSource (BLDR).
Equity conferences this week: none.
Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +0.52% on European takeover deals and relief that the Chinese stock market was able to stabilize today. Monday's closes: S&P 500 -0.58%, Dow Jones -0.73%, Nasdaq -0.96%. The S&P 500 on Monday extended last week’s losses to post a new 2-week low on the -8.5% plunge in the Shanghai index and technical selling ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting, which could produce a more hawkish FOMC post-meeting statement warning of a Fed rate hike as soon as the next meeting in September.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Sep 10-year T-note prices are down 9 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand with the upward rebound in the U.S. and European stock indexes. Monday's closes: TYU5 +14, FVU5 +9. Sep T-notes on Monday rallied to a 2-1/2 week high on the mixed U.S. durable goods orders report that featured downward revisions for May, and on increased safe-haven demand as the Chinese stock market threatened to resume its free-fall and as the U.S. Dow Jones Industrials index fell to a new 6-month low.
The dollar index this morning is up +0.406 (+0.42%) as some confidence returns with the upward rebound in U.S. and European stock indexes. EUR/USD is down -0.0056 (-0.51%) and USD/JPY is up +0.51 (+0.41%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.710 (-0.73%), EUR/USD +0.0104 (+0.95%), USD/JPY -0.56 (-0.45%). The dollar index on Monday settled with a fairly sharp loss on long liquidation pressure in the dollar index after its sharp month-long rally, the reduced chance for Fed tightening as Chinese stocks plunged on Monday, and strength in EUR/USD as the chances for Grexit diminish as negotiations begin on Tuesday on the 3-year Greek bailout.
Sep crude oil is down -0.34 (-0.72%), Sep Brent is down -0.73 (-1.37%), and Sep gasoline is down -0.0227 (-1.28%) as concerns continue about a worsening glut later this year as Iranian oil exports step up. Monday's closes: CLU5 -0.75 (-1.56%), RBU5 -0.0158 (-0.89%). Sep crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed sharply lower on the plunge in the Chinese stock market and renewed concern about the Chinese economy and on ongoing worries that the world oil glut will worsen as Iran rebuilds its oil exports later this year if sanctions are dropped in December as expected.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/28/2015
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/28/2015