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Barchart U.S. Morning Call

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Thu, 29 Jul 2010 07:00:00 -0500

'); document.write('Overnight Developments

European stocks are higher with the European Stoxx 50 up 0.55% after hitting a 3-month high. Sep S&Ps are up 5.70 points (+0.52%). European stocks received support from positive earnings reports from AstraZeneca and Volkswagen and from positive confidence and employment reports. The European Commission\'s business and consumer confidence index rose to a 2-1/3 year high of 101.3 from 99 in June. Meanwhile, Germany unemployment fell by 20,000 to 3.21 million, which was the lowest level in 1-1/2 years and was the 13th consecutive monthly decline. The Germany unemployment rate fell to 7.6% from 7.7%. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde today said she expects a "serious pickup" in global growth in 2011, "if only because global trade has significantly improved." UBS upgraded European stocks to "neutral" from "underweight," cut U.S. stocks to "neutral," and cut Japanese stocks to "underweight."
The Asian markets today closed mixed: Japan -0.59%, Hong Kong +0.01%, China +0.50%, Taiwan +0.18%, Australia -0.13%, Singapore +0.41%, South Korea -0.17%, Bombay +0.19%. Asian stocks were undercut by Wednesday\'s U.S. Beige Book report, which suggested lackluster U.S. demand for Asian exports. Panasonic fell 7.7% today after news that the company would offer stock to help it purchase full control of its Sanyo Electric and Panasonic Electric Works units.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

Sep S&Ps this morning are up +5.70 points on support from strong European economic data and higher European stocks. Visa is up 1.3% in European trading a positive earnings report. The stock market yesterday fell moderately (Dow -0.38%, S&P 500 -0.69%, Nasdaq Composite -1.04%). Bearish factors included (1) long liquidation pressure after the week-long rally to a new 1-month high, (2) the weaker-than-expected June durable goods orders report of -1.0% overall and -0.6% ex-transporation (versus expectations of +1.0% and +0.4%, respectively), and (3) the mixed Beige Book report from the Fed, which said that economic growth continues but at a weaker pace in some districts due to commercial real estate and the expiration of the tax credit for homebuyers. Bullish factors included (1) news in the durable goods report that orders for non-military capital equipment ex-aircraft rose +0.6% to add to May\'s 4.6% surge, suggesting businesses are laying the groundwork for an expansion of production, and (2) continued support from the very favorable Q2 earnings season.

Today\'s Market Focus

September 10-year T-notes this morning are trading up 2.5 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note prices yesterday closed up 17 ticks. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected durable goods report and the Beige Book report that noted economic slowing in some districts, (2) some safe-haven demand due to the stock market sell-off, and (3) the decent results for the 5-year T-note auction with a strong bid cover of 3.06 and indirect bidder demand of 47.3% of the auction (Versus the 12-auction average of 47.1%). The main bearish factor was supply overhang ahead of Thursday\'s 7-year T-note auction.
The dollar index this morning is trading sharply lower by -0.63 points at a new 3-month low. The dollar/yen down 0.63 yen and the euro/dollar up -0.92 cents. The euro received a boost today from the positive European economic data. The dollar continues to lose ground on ebbing safe-haven demand. The dollar index yesterday closed slightly lower by 0.048 points, consolidating above Tuesday\'s 3-month low. The dollar was undercut by the weaker-than-expected US durable goods report but gained a little safe-haven support from yesterday\'s sell-off in stocks.
September crude oil prices this morning are trading up 30 cents per barrel and September gasoline is up 0.23 cents per gallon. The main bullish factor is higher stocks, which have improved sentiment about fuel demand. Sep crude oil prices yesterday fell by 51 cents to add to Tuesday\'s $1.48 sell-off. Sep gasoline prices yesterday closed slightly higher by 0.06 cents. Bearish factors yesterday included (1) the DOE\'s weekly report that crude oil inventories rose sharply by 7.31 million barrels (2.1%), compared with the market consensus for a drop of 1.7 million bbl, and (2) yesterday\'s weaker-than-expected durable goods orders report, which added to the recent decline in consumer confidence to suggest that fuel demand may remain soft in coming months.

Today\'s U.S. Earnings Reports

Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) XOM-Exxon-Mobil (BEST earnings consensus $1.45), AMGN-Amgen (1.30), CL-Colgate-Palmolive (1.17), MET-Metlife (1.00), CELG-Celgene (0.66), BEN-Franklin-Res (1.50), ADP-Automatic Data (0.42), K-Kellogg (0.94), COV-Covidien (0.80), CME-CME Group (4.36), RTN-Raytheon (1.19), MOT-Motorola (0.08), NOC-Northrop Grumman (2.20), TYC-Tyco (0.64), WM-Waste Management (0.54), BDX-Becton Dickinson (1.24), NOV-National Oilwell Varco (0.93), AVP-Avon Products (0.44), RSG-Republic Services (0.42), NBL-Noble Energy (0.75), FSLR-First Solar (1.62).

Global Financial Calendar
Thursday 7/29/10
United States
0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -4,000 to 460,000, previous +37,000 to 464,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +13,000 to 4.500 million, previous 223,000 to 4.487 million.
1300 ET Treasury auctions $29 billion 7-year T-notes.
1630 ET Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
United Kingdom
0200 ET Jul UK nationwide house prices expected -0.4% m/m and +7.0% y/y, Jun +0.1% m/m and +8.7% y/y.
France
0245 ET Jun French producer prices expected +0.3% m/m and +3.9% y/y, May unchanged m/m and +4.3% y/y.
Germany
0355 ET Jul German unemployment change expected -20,000, Jun -21,000. Jul unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 7.6%, Jun unchanged at 7.7%.
United Kingdom
0430 ET Jun UK net consumer credit expected +0.2 billion pounds, May +0.3 billion pounds.
0430 ET Jun UK mortgage approvals expected 48,500, May 49,800.
0430 ET Revised Jun UK M4 money supply, previous unchanged m/m and +3.0% y/y.
1901 ET Jul UK GfK consumer confidence survey expected -1 to -20, Jun -1 to -19.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET Jul Euro-Zone business climate indicator expected +0.02 to 0.39, Jun unchanged at 0.37.
0500 ET Jul Euro-Zone economic confidence expected +0.4 to 99.1, Jun +0.3 to 98.7.
Canada
0830 ET Jun Canadian industrial product prices expected +0.5% m/m, May +0.3% m/m.
0830 ET Jun Canadian raw materials price index expected +1.0% m/m, May -7.2% m/m.
Japan
1915 ET Jul Japan Nomura/JMMA manufacturing PMI, Jun -0.8 to 53.9.
1930 ET Jun Japan jobless rate expected unchanged at 5.2%, May +0.1 to 5.2%. Jun job-to-applicant ratio expected unchanged at 0.50, May +0.02 to 0.50.
1930 ET Jul Tokyo CPI expected -0.8% y/y, Jun -0.9% y/y. Jul Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected -1.2% y/y, Jun -1.3% y/y. Jul Tokyo CPI ex food and energy expected -1.4% y/y, Jun -1.4% y/y.
1930 ET Jun Japan national CPI expected -0.7% y/y, May -0.9% y/y. Jun national CPI ex-fresh food expected -1.1% y/y, May -1.2% y/y. Jun national CPI ex food and energy expected -1.5% y/y, May -1.6% y/y.
1950 ET Jun Japan industrial production expected +0.2% m/m and +18.9% y/y, May +0.1% m/m and +20.4% y/y.

Thursday 7/29/10
United States
0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -4,000 to 460,000, previous +37,000 to 464,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +13,000 to 4.500 million, previous 223,000 to 4.487 million.
1300 ET	Treasury auctions $29 billion 7-year T-notes.
1630 ET	Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
United Kingdom
0200 ET	Jul UK nationwide house prices expected -0.4% m/m and +7.0% y/y, Jun +0.1% m/m and +8.7% y/y.
France
0245 ET	Jun French producer prices expected +0.3% m/m and +3.9% y/y, May unchanged m/m and +4.3% y/y.
Germany
0355 ET	Jul German unemployment change expected -20,000, Jun -21,000. Jul unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 7.6%, Jun unchanged at 7.7%.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	Jun UK net consumer credit expected +0.2 billion pounds, May +0.3 billion pounds.
0430 ET	Jun UK mortgage approvals expected 48,500, May 49,800.
0430 ET	Revised Jun UK M4 money supply, previous unchanged m/m and +3.0% y/y.
1901 ET	Jul UK GfK consumer confidence survey expected -1 to -20, Jun -1 to -19.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET	Jul Euro-Zone business climate indicator expected +0.02 to 0.39, Jun unchanged at 0.37.
0500 ET	Jul Euro-Zone economic confidence expected +0.4 to 99.1, Jun +0.3 to 98.7.
Canada
0830 ET	Jun Canadian industrial product prices expected +0.5% m/m, May +0.3% m/m.
0830 ET	Jun Canadian raw materials price index expected +1.0% m/m, May -7.2% m/m.
Japan
1915 ET	Jul Japan Nomura/JMMA manufacturing PMI, Jun -0.8 to 53.9.
1930 ET	Jun Japan jobless rate expected unchanged at 5.2%, May +0.1 to 5.2%. Jun job-to-applicant ratio expected unchanged at 0.50, May +0.02 to 0.50.
1930 ET	Jul Tokyo CPI expected -0.8% y/y, Jun -0.9% y/y. Jul Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected -1.2% y/y, Jun -1.3% y/y. Jul Tokyo CPI ex food and energy expected -1.4% y/y, Jun -1.4% y/y.
1930 ET	Jun Japan national CPI expected -0.7% y/y, May -0.9% y/y. Jun national CPI ex-fresh food expected -1.1% y/y, May -1.2% y/y. Jun national CPI ex food and energy expected -1.5% y/y, May -1.6% y/y.
1950 ET	Jun Japan industrial production expected +0.2% m/m and +18.9% y/y, May +0.1% m/m and +20.4% y/y.

Morning Quote Board
Morning Quotes (ET) Last Chg %chg Updated
US Stock Futures
S&P (Globex) (U0) 1107.80 5.70 0.52% 07:04:19
DJIA (CBOT) (U0) 10492 44 0.42% 07:01:53
European Stocks
Europe DJ Stoxx 50 2511.74 13.81 0.55% 07:03:15
London UK FTSE Index 5360.91 41.23 0.78% 07:03:17
German Dax Index 6215.71 36.77 0.60% 07:03:16
French CAC 40 Index 3687.25 16.89 0.46% 07:03:15
Asian-Pacific Stocks
Japan Nikkei Index 9696 -57 -0.59% 02:29:01
Hong Kong Hang Seng 21094 3 0.01% 04:01:30
China CSI 300 Index 2878 14 0.50% 03:01:27
Taiwan TAIEX Index 7799 14 0.18% 01:46:01
Australian S&P 200 4524.1 -5.8 -0.13% 02:38:46
Singapore Str. Times 2997.65 12.27 0.41% 05:10:01
South Korea KOSPI 200 231.16 -0.4 -0.17% 05:03:26
Bombay Sensex 30 17992 34.63 0.19% 06:30:02
Karachi KSE-100 10427 -30 -0.29% 06:19:05
US Interest Rates
10yr T-notes (CBT)(U0) 122.300 0.025 0.06% 07:08:17
Cash 10yr T-note Price 104.115 0.005 0.01% 07:18:01
Cash 10yr T-note Yield 2.983 -0.002 -0.06% 07:17
5yr T-note (CBT)(U0) 119.070 0.025 0.07% 07:08:14
Cash 5yr T-note Price 100.060 0.050 0.15% 07:18:01
Cash 5yr T-note Yield 1.711 0.015 0.90% 07:17
30-yr T-bond (CBT)(U0) 126.29 0.02 0.05% 07:08:14
Cash 30yr T-bond Price 105.095 -0.015 -0.04% 07:16:30
Cash 30yr T-bond Yield 4.066 0.003 0.06% 07:16
Eurodollars (CME)(U0) 99.590 0.015 0.02% 07:05:51
Eurodollars (CME)(Z0) 99.545 0.020 0.02% 07:06:46
Asian & European Rates
10-yr JGBs (TSE) (U0) 141.72 0.17 0.12% 02:00:00
EuroyenTibor(SGX)(U0) 99.650 -0.005 -0.01% 07:05:53
Bunds (Eurex) (U0) 127.95 0.14 0.11% 07:03:13
Euribor (Eurex) (U0) 99.03 0.00 0.00% 7/28/2010
UK Gilts (Liffe) (U0) 120.32 0.36 0.30% 07:03:08
Short Stlg (Liffe) U0) 99.23 0.00 0.00% 07:02:28
Forex
U.S. Dollar Index 81.57 -0.61 -0.74% 07:08:16
US Dollar-Japanese Yen 86.84 -0.63 -0.72% 07:18:17
EuroFX-US Dollar 1.3087 0.0092 0.92% 07:18:17
US Dollar-Swiss Franc 1.0434 -0.0133 -1.33% 07:18:17
British Pound-US$ 1.5633 0.0035 0.35% 07:18:17
US$-Canadian Dlr 1.0315 -0.0073 -0.73% 07:18:17
Yen (Globex) (U0) 1.1516 0.0073 0.73% 07:08:14
Euro FX (Globex) (U0) 1.3084 0.0105 0.81% 07:08:16
SwissFranc (Globex)(U0) 0.9584 0.0127 1.34% 07:08:16
British Pound(Glbx)(U0) 1.5632 0.0051 0.33% 07:08:16
Canadian$ (Globex)(U0) 0.9691 0.0064 0.66% 07:08:09
Commodities
Gold (Comex) (Q0) 1165.3 4.9 0.42% 07:08:17
Silver (Comex) (U0) 17.585 0.144 0.83% 07:07:59
Copper (Comex) (U0) 328.3 3.7 1.14% 07:08:16
Crude Oil (Nymex) (U0) 77.29 0.30 0.39% 07:08:17
Gasoline (Nymex) (U0) 206.7 0.23 0.11% 07:06:48
Heating Oil(Nymex) (U0) 203.71 1.11 0.55% 07:07:40
NaturalGas(Nymex)(U0) 4.759 0.041 0.87% 07:07:09
Corn (CBOT) (Z0) 394.75 4.00 1.02% 07:08:03
Soybeans (CBOT) (X0) 984.00 6.00 0.61% 07:08:03
Wheat (CBOT) (Z0) 654.50 7.50 1.16% 07:07:35
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US Stock Futures
Morning Quotes (ET)	Last	Chg	%chg	Updated
S&P (Globex) (U0)	1107.80	5.70	0.52%	07:04:19
DJIA (CBOT) (U0)	10492	44	0.42%	07:01:53

European Stocks
Europe DJ Stoxx 50	2511.74	13.81	0.55%	07:03:15
London UK FTSE Index	5360.91	41.23	0.78%	07:03:17
German Dax Index	6215.71	36.77	0.60%	07:03:16
French CAC 40 Index	3687.25	16.89	0.46%	07:03:15

Asian-Pacific Stocks
Japan Nikkei Index	9696	-57	-0.59%	02:29:01
Hong Kong Hang Seng	21094	3	0.01%	04:01:30
China CSI 300 Index	2878	14	0.50%	03:01:27
Taiwan TAIEX Index	7799	14	0.18%	01:46:01
Australian S&P 200	4524.1	-5.8	-0.13%	02:38:46
Singapore Str. Times	2997.65	12.27	0.41%	05:10:01
South Korea KOSPI 200	231.16	-0.4	-0.17%	05:03:26
Bombay Sensex 30	17992	34.63	0.19%	06:30:02
Karachi KSE-100	10427	-30	-0.29%	06:19:05

US Interest Rates
10yr T-notes (CBT)(U0)	122.300	0.025	0.06%	07:08:17
Cash 10yr T-note Price	104.115	0.005	0.01%	07:18:01
Cash 10yr T-note Yield	2.983	-0.002	-0.06%	07:17
5yr T-note (CBT)(U0)	119.070	0.025	0.07%	07:08:14
Cash 5yr T-note Price	100.060	0.050	0.15%	07:18:01
Cash 5yr T-note Yield	1.711	0.015	0.90%	07:17
30-yr T-bond (CBT)(U0)	126.29	0.02	0.05%	07:08:14
Cash 30yr T-bond Price	105.095	-0.015	-0.04%	07:16:30
Cash 30yr T-bond Yield	4.066	0.003	0.06%	07:16
Eurodollars (CME)(U0)	99.590	0.015	0.02%	07:05:51
Eurodollars (CME)(Z0)	99.545	0.020	0.02%	07:06:46

Asian & European Rates
10-yr JGBs (TSE) (U0)	141.72	0.17	0.12%	02:00:00
EuroyenTibor(SGX)(U0)	99.650	-0.005	-0.01%	07:05:53
Bunds (Eurex) (U0)	127.95	0.14	0.11%	07:03:13
Euribor (Eurex) (U0)	99.03	0.00	0.00%	7/28/2010
UK Gilts (Liffe) (U0)	120.32	0.36	0.30%	07:03:08
Short Stlg (Liffe) U0)	99.23	0.00	0.00%	07:02:28

Forex
U.S. Dollar Index	81.57	-0.61	-0.74%	07:08:16
US Dollar-Japanese Yen	86.84	-0.63	-0.72%	07:18:17
EuroFX-US Dollar	1.3087	0.0092	0.92%	07:18:17
US Dollar-Swiss Franc	1.0434	-0.0133	-1.33%	07:18:17
British Pound-US$	1.5633	0.0035	0.35%	07:18:17
US$-Canadian Dlr	1.0315	-0.0073	-0.73%	07:18:17
Yen (Globex) (U0)	1.1516	0.0073	0.73%	07:08:14
Euro FX (Globex) (U0)	1.3084	0.0105	0.81%	07:08:16
SwissFranc (Globex)(U0)	0.9584	0.0127	1.34%	07:08:16
British Pound(Glbx)(U0)	1.5632	0.0051	0.33%	07:08:16
Canadian$ (Globex)(U0)	0.9691	0.0064	0.66%	07:08:09

Commodities
Gold (Comex) (Q0)	1165.3	4.9	0.42%	07:08:17
Silver (Comex) (U0)	17.585	0.144	0.83%	07:07:59
Copper (Comex) (U0)	328.3	3.7	1.14%	07:08:16
Crude Oil (Nymex) (U0)	77.29	0.30	0.39%	07:08:17
Gasoline (Nymex) (U0)	206.7	0.23	0.11%	07:06:48
Heating Oil(Nymex) (U0)	203.71	1.11	0.55%	07:07:40
NaturalGas(Nymex)(U0)	4.759	0.041	0.87%	07:07:09
Corn (CBOT) (Z0)	394.75	4.00	1.02%	07:08:03
Soybeans (CBOT) (X0)	984.00	6.00	0.61%	07:08:03
Wheat (CBOT) (Z0)	654.50	7.50	1.16%	07:07:35