Hang Seng China Enterprises Futures continues the 6 month bull run but failed to close the week above the 2012 high having pierced it on Thursday. We may therefore see some profit taking at the start of the week and below 11837 signals a move to 11712. If we cannot hold on here look for a buying opportunity today at 11620/600. Stops on longs needed below 11500 for 11336/315. Exit all shorts and try longs here again with a stop below 11270.
If we can hold on to 11837 then a retest of last week’s high at 12038 looks likely. A break above here then signals a test of resistance at 12117.
Hang Seng Futures have been in a strong up trend now for over 6 months. Although the market is severely overbought in all time frames, it is unwise to fight the trend so we look to buy in to any profit taking.
22850/800 is our first downside support and we could see a bounce from here if tested today. Exit shorts and try longs with a stop below the gap at 22741. Should then be worth trying shorts on a break lower looking for the next target at 22500. Take profit here on shorts and look to buy in to longs down to 22410.
Resistance at Friday’s high of 23375 then last week’s high at 23450. If however we push through here look for 23614, possibly 23790 as the next upside target.
JGB’s tested the 2 year trend line support at 143.20 and daily Fibonacci support 143.15. We predicted a strong chance of a bounce from here and the low in fact was seen at 143.12. The market then hit our target for the bounce at 143.48 and halted exactly here. Above 143.50 targets 143.63/73 then resistance at 143.85/95 today.
Stops can be kept tight on longs below 142.90 where we would then look to reverse back in to shorts again as a break lower can target 142.66/64. This is a good daily and weekly support level so watch for a bounce from here but longs can use stops below the 100 week moving average at 142.49.
Kospi Futures did test support at 266.50/35 and just held on here.
However a break lower is more likely today with 263.89/60 as the next downside target. Exit shorts and try longs looking for the bounce with a stop below 261.80. Go with a break below here then in expectation of a test of support at 258.27-257.73. Excellent buying opportunity seen with in this band.
Immediate resistance seen at 269.35/80 then Friday’s high of 271.35 will need to be beaten for a retest of last week’s high at 273.85. Exit any longs on the approach with a good chance of a top here again today. Try shorts as we approach the 2012 high of 274.60 as this is tough resistance in a market that is over bought and in need of some profit taking on the daily chart.
Nikkei Futures made a new high for this bull run but closed lower forming a reversal day, which warns of short term profit taking to follow this week. We now look for the gap to be filled to 10466/450. Any longs attempted here need stops below 10400 for 10360 then a test of better support at 10293/253. Exit any shorts here and buy in to longs again with a stop below 10190.
Resistance now at 10600/620 but above here we could move back towards 10810. Look to take profit on longs here for the day with the risk of sellers over powering again. However be ready to buy back in to longs on a sustained break higher as we should then target 2011 highs at 10890. We are getting very overbought now in all time frames so this area could prove a struggle.
However a push through 10900 cannot be ruled out in this 8 week bull run and would then target 10980, possibly 11110-11220.
The Straits Times made a new high for this run reaching 3237 but has closed lower and this is a warning of short term profit taking to follow. Today we look for a move to 3195 which may mark the low for the day. However watch for a break below 3185 to keep the pressure on for 3166. Exit all shorts and try longs here looking for a floor. Stops needed below 3155.
Bulls will need to see the market break 3240 to eliminate any short term negative pressure now for a test of 3257/59 resistance on the way to 2011 highs at 3270/80.
Topix March Futures looks likely to move below support at 882.5/881 for 872.3 and probably as far as 864/862.5. Exit any shorts as we approach this support band and buy into longs from here down to 855, which would be expected to be the low of any short term correction at this stage.
If we can hold above 882 then there is the chance of a retest of last week’s high at 899. Try shorts here with a stop above 901.5 for 905 to fill a gap. If we continue higher there is not much to stop a move towards 922/927.