Soybean is the common name for the annual leguminous plant and its seed. The soybean is a member of the oilseed family and is not considered a grain. The soybean seeds are contained in pods and are nearly spherical in shape. The seeds are usually light yellow in color. The seeds contain 20% oil and 40% protein. Soybeans were an ancient food crop in China, Japan, and Korea and were only introduced to the U.S. in the early 1800s. Today, soybeans are the second largest crop produced in the U.S. behind corn. Soybean production in the U.S. is concentrated in the Midwest and the lower Mississippi Valley. Soybean crops in the U.S. are planted in May or June and are harvested in autumn. Soybean plants usually reach maturity 100-150 days after planting depending on growing conditions.
Soybeans are used to produce a wide variety of food products. The key value of soybeans lies in the relatively high protein content, which makes it an excellent source of protein without many of the negative factors of animal meat. Popular soy-based food products include whole soybeans (roasted for snacks or used in sauces, stews and soups), soy oil for cooking and baking, soy flour, protein concentrates, isolated soy protein (which contains up to 92% protein), soy milk and baby formula (as an alternative to dairy products), soy yogurt, soy cheese, soy nut butter, soy sprouts, tofu and tofu products (soybean curd), soy sauce (which is produced by a fermentation process), and meat alternatives (hamburgers, breakfast sausage, etc).
The primary market for soybean futures is at the Chicago Board of Trade. The CBOT's soybean contract calls for the delivery of 5,000 bushels of No. 2 yellow soybeans (at contract par), No. 1 yellow soybeans (at 6 cents per bushel above the contract price), or No. 3 yellow soybeans (at a 6 cents under the contract price). Soybean futures are also traded at exchanges in Brazil, Argentina, China, and Tokyo.
Prices - Soybean futures prices hit a 2-1/2 year low of $7.77 per bushel in December 2008 but then recovered in the first half of 2009. Bullish factors in the first half of the year included strong Chinese demand and the USDA's early estimates for a 5-year low in the 2009-10 US carry-over. However, soybean prices peaked at a 1-1/2 year high of $12.91 in June 2009 and spent most of the rest of the year trading in the relatively narrow range of $9-11 per bushel. Soybean prices fell back in the latter half of 2009 due to favorable summer growing weather and the record high of 44.0 bushels per acre seen during the summer of 2009, which produced a record US soybean crop of 3.361 billion bushels (+13.3% y/y). Due to relatively strong demand, the record crop was mostly absorbed and the 2009-10 carry-over of 210 million bushels was 33% below the 5-year average of 315 million bushels. On the global stage, world soybean production in 2009-10 hit a record high of 255.020 million metric tons, up sharply by 21% from the year-earlier level. The record level of production pushed the world carry-over up to 59.73 million metric tons, which was the second highest ever behind 62.7 billion in 2006-07. The large global crop and relatively high global carry-over kept a lid on soybean prices in the latter half of 2009 and early 2010. Looking ahead into 2010-11, the USDA is forecasting that the US soybean crop will be just 3% below last summer's record high, thus pushing the carry-over up to 330 million bushels and likely keeping a lid on prices in coming months if the US summer weather is favorable in 2010.
Supply - World soybean production during the 2009-10 marketing year (Sep-Aug) rose by +20.9% yr/yr to a new record high of 255.017 million metric tons. World soybean production has more than tripled from the 81 million metric ton level seen in 1980. The world's largest soybean producers were the U.S. with 36% of world production in 2009-10, Brazil (26%), Argentina (21%), China (6%), and India (3%). China's soybean production has roughly doubled since 1980. Brazil's production has risen by almost four times since 1980.
U.S. soybean production in 2009-10 rose by +13.36% yr/yr to a new record high of 3.361 billion bushels. U.S. farmers harvested a record high of 76.407 million acres of soybeans in 2009-10, which is up +2.31% yr/yr. The average yield in 2009-10 is up +10.8% yr/yr to a new record high of 44.0 bushels per acre. U.S. ending stocks for the 2009-10 marketing year (September 1), fell by -32.6% to 138.2 million bushels but still above the 3-decade low of 112.4 million bushels seen in 2004-05.
Demand - Total U.S. distribution in 2009-10 rose +7.1% to 3.262 billion bushels. The distribution tables for U.S. soybeans for the 2009-10 marketing year show that 52% of U.S. soybean usage went for crushing into soybean oil and meal, 42% for exports, and 6% for seed and residual. The quantity of U.S. soybeans that went for crushing rose +2.9% yr/yr in 2009-10 to 1.710 billion bushels. The world soybean crush rose +5.0% yr/yr in 2009-10 to a new record high of 204.219 million metric tons, which was about double the level seen in 1993-94.
Trade - World exports of soybeans in 2009-10 rose +6.0% yr/yr to a new record high of 81.389 million metric tons. The world's largest soybean exporters in 2009-10 were the U.S. with 47% of world exports, Brazil with 31% of world exports, and Argentina with 10% of world exports. U.S. soybean exports in 2009-10 rose +9.1% yr/yr to a new record high of 38.102 million metric tons. Brazil's soybean exports have more than doubled in the past decade and Canada's exports have almost tripled.
World imports in 2009-10 rose +3.1% yr/yr to a new record high of 79.575 million metric tons. The world's largest importers of soybeans in 2009-10 were China with 53% of world imports, the European Union with 16%, Japan with 5%, and Mexico with 4%. China's imports in 2009-10 rose +3.4% yr/yr to a record level of 42.500 million metric tons, which is way from negligible levels prior to 1994.
Articles from the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Commodity Yearbook. The single most comprehensive source of commodity and futures market information available, the Yearbook is the book of record of the Commodity Research Bureau, which is, in turn, the organization of record for the commodity industry itself. Its sources - reports from governments, private industries, and trade and industrial associations - are authoritative, and its historical scope is second to none. Additional information can be found at www.crbyearbook.com.