A stock index simply represents a basket of underlying stocks. Indices can be either price-weighted or capitalization-weighted. In a price-weighted index, such as the Dow Jones Industrials Average, the individual stock prices are simply added up and then divided by a divisor, meaning that stocks with higher prices have a higher weighting in the index value. In a capitalization-weighted index, such as the Standard and Poor's 500 index, the weighting of each stock corresponds to the size of the company as determined by its capitalization (i.e., the total dollar value of its stock). Stock indices cover a variety of different sectors. For example, the Dow Jones Industrials Average contains 30 blue-chip stocks that represent the industrial sector. The S&P 500 index includes 500 of the largest blue-chip U.S. companies. The NYSE index includes all the stocks that are traded at the New York Stock Exchange. The Nasdaq 100 includes the largest 100 companies that are traded on the Nasdaq Exchange. The most popular U.S. stock index futures contract is the S&P 500 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
Prices - The S&P 500 index peaked at a record high of 1576.09 in October 2007 and then plunged by a total of -58% in the following 3 years to post a 13-year low of 666.79 in March 2009. The S&P 500 then staged an impressive recovery rally of +73% to post a 15-month high by January 2010. The S&P 500 in early 2010 remained far below the pre-crisis range above 1400, but at least returned to the levels seen in 2004.
The U.S. stock market, starting in March 2009, was able to stage a sharp recovery rally when it became clear that the Federal Reserve had contained the banking crisis and that the U.S. recession was close to bottoming out. In fact, the U.S. recession ended in the summer of 2009 and GDP turned positive in the second half of 2009. The Federal Reserve did its job in preventing an economic depression by flooding the financial system with liquidity and by providing a wide range of guarantees and backstops to halt the panic and capital flight. The other G7 banks also pitched in with massive liquidity injections that softened the blow from the banking system crisis. China was also a big factor in softening the blow from the financial crisis and helping to pull the global economy out of recession. Chinese GDP growth fell only as low as +6.2% in Q2-2009 and then strengthened to a torrid +10.7% by Q4-2009.
U.S. corporations during the worst post-war recession did a remarkable job in preserving profits and limiting losses. The banking system saw massive losses and most of the big banks had to take TARP money from the federal government to ensure their survival. But outside the banking system, the damage was much less severe. U.S. corporations quickly slashed their employee head counts and expenses and downsized their operations to match the lower demand. That produced a better profit picture and also meant that the recovery could begin sooner.
Earnings growth for the S&P 500 companies was negative for nine consecutive quarters from Q3-2007 through Q3-2009. However, earnings growth turned positive in Q4-2009 with growth of about +8% excluding the recovery in bank earnings. As of early 2010, the S&P 500 was trading at a very reasonable price-to-earnings ratio based on forward-looking earnings of 14.2. The reasonable valuation level leaves room on the upside for further gains in stock prices once earnings growth and the economic recovery gain better traction.
Articles from the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Commodity Yearbook. The single most comprehensive source of commodity and futures market information available, the Yearbook is the book of record of the Commodity Research Bureau, which is, in turn, the organization of record for the commodity industry itself. Its sources - reports from governments, private industries, and trade and industrial associations - are authoritative, and its historical scope is second to none. Additional information can be found at www.crbyearbook.com.