Crude Oil Murban Jun '24 (DBM24)

Description

Butter is a dairy product produced by churning the fat from milk, usually cow's milk, until it solidifies. In some parts of the world, butter is also made from the milk of goats, sheep, and even horses. Butter has been in use since at least 2,000 BC. Today butter is used principally as a food item, but in ancient times it was used more as an ointment, medicine, or illuminating oil. Butter was first churned in skin pouches thrown back and forth over the backs of trotting horses.

It takes about 10 quarts of milk to produce 1 pound of butter. The manufacture of butter is the third largest use of milk in the U.S. California is generally the largest producing state, followed closely by Wisconsin, with Washington as a distant third. Commercially finished butter is comprised of milk fat (80% to 85%), water (12% to 16%), and salt (about 2%). Although the price of butter is highly correlated with the price of milk, it also has its own supply and demand dynamics.

The consumption of butter has dropped in recent decades because pure butter has a high level of animal fat and cholesterol that have been linked to obesity and heart disease. The primary substitute for butter is margarine, which is produced from vegetable oil rather than milk fat. U.S. per capita consumption of margarine has risen from 2.6 pounds in 1930 to recent levels near 8.3 pounds, much higher than U.S. butter consumption.

Butter Futures and options are traded on the CME Group. The CME's butter futures contract calls for the delivery of 20,000 pounds of butter and is priced in cents per pound. Futures on butter are traded on the European Energy Exchange and the Singapore Exchange.

Prices - The average monthly price of butter at the CME in 2022 rose by +66% yr/yr to $2.87/pound, which was a new record annual average high.

Supply - World production of butter in 2023 is forecasted to rise by +1.6% yr/yr to 11.584 million metric tons, a new record high. The world's largest producers of butter for 2023 are forecasted to be India with 57.8% of the world production, the European Union with 17.6%, the U.S. with 8.4%, New Zealand with 4.1%, and Russia with 2.4%. Production of creamery butter by U.S. factories in 2022 fell by -1.6% yr/yr to 2.038 billion pounds.

Demand - Total commercial use of creamery butter in the U.S. fell by -6.8% yr/yr to 1.994 million pounds in 2022. Cold storage stocks of creamery butter in the U.S. on January 1, 2022, fell by -27.3 yr/yr to 199.056 million pounds.

Trade - World imports of butter in 2023 are expected to remain unchanged at 626,000 metric tons. U.S. imports of butter in 2023 are expected to fall by -8.6% to 74,000 metric tons. World exports of butter in 2023 are expected to fall by -4.8% yr/yr to 1.032 million metric tons. U.S exports in 2023 are expected to fall by -11.9% yr/yr to 74,000 metric tons, far below the 1993 record high of 145,000 metric tons.

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